{ "report_id": "portfolio-autoresearch-2026-07-07", "report_type": "portfolio_autoresearch", "site_path": "portfolio/autoresearch/index.html", "title": "Clean-Sheet Thematic Portfolio Autoresearch", "as_of": "2026-07-07", "generated_at": "2026-07-07T12:00:00-07:00", "market_data_as_of": "2026-07-06", "research_as_of": "2026-07-07", "freshness": { "local_discovery_ohlc": "Common-stock daily OHLC was checked read-only through 2026-07-06.", "local_theme_pages": "Power nodes were freshest near 2026-07-02; AI capex, biology, and robotics nodes contain June 2026 technical packages and were treated as source routes, not current chart triggers.", "web_sources": "Current web and issuer checks were used where available through 2026-07-07.", "quote_gaps": "No live OPRA option chains were checked. ETF technical rows often lack local OHLC and use issuer evidence instead." }, "revision": { "version": "1.0", "notes": "Main-agent tournament output. Clean-sheet exercise. No current holdings, Schwab exports, open-book data, existing portfolio pages, transition costs, or private account data were used." }, "scoring_weights": { "thematic_upside": 0.2, "evidence_quality": 0.15, "direct_monetization": 0.15, "valuation_setup_risk": 0.125, "macro_resilience": 0.125, "liquidity_rebalance": 0.1, "uniqueness": 0.075, "expected_drawdown_control": 0.075 }, "category_winners": { "best_overall": "portfolio-01", "best_aggressive": "portfolio-07", "best_balanced": "portfolio-03", "best_downside_aware": "portfolio-02" }, "clean_sheet_exclusions": [ "Existing portfolio pages and metadata under reports/portfolio, except for the new portfolio/autoresearch output path.", "Current holdings, open-book membership, position rules, target watchlists, transition notes, and Schwab exports.", "Private account balances, account numbers, account hashes, tokens, raw ledgers, realized/unrealized P/L, or dollar values.", "Any subagent observation derived from existing portfolio artifacts. Those observations were treated as contaminated and excluded from final allocation decisions." ], "source_audit_summary": { "accepted_claims": [ "AI capex is supported by primary evidence from NVIDIA data-center revenue, Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue, Microsoft cloud/RPO growth, and issuer data for SMH.", "Power/grid is supported by local power theme routing, the power-grid paper, issuer evidence from GE Vernova, Eaton, Vertiv, and grid services nodes, plus external data-center electricity demand studies.", "AI biology is investable through biology data, diagnostics, lab tools, clinical evidence rails, and scientific software. Direct disclosed AI-biology revenue is thinner than the theme narrative.", "Robotics is investable mainly through monetized surgical robotics, factory/warehouse automation, machine vision, motion components, and embedded edge semis. Pure public humanoid exposure remains weak." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Situational Awareness is a thesis prior, not sufficient investment evidence by itself.", "Backlog, RPO, MW announcements, or PPA headlines do not prove earnings power without margin, cancellation, credit, timing, and cash-conversion terms.", "ETF ownership does not prove underlying company fundamentals.", "Pure neocloud, miner-HPC, humanoid OEM, service-robot microcap, and precommercial nuclear exposure was not allowed to drive final portfolio risk." ], "weak_or_stale_evidence": [ "AI capex, biology, and robotics node pages contain June 2026 chart packages; local common-stock OHLC through 2026-07-06 was used as the fresher technical reference.", "Several detailed company lanes for power and robotics are May or early June source runs. Evidence scores were capped where current primary filings or transcripts were missing.", "ETF rows often lack local OHLC and use issuer methodology, holdings, AUM, spread, and expense data instead.", "No live OPRA option chains were checked; options rows are candidate structures only." ], "unresolved_gaps": [ "Live option quotes, open interest, IV, greeks, and bid/ask spreads.", "Current ETF local OHLC ingestion for SMH, GRID, BOTZ, IBB, IHI, SGOV, QQQM, XBI, and levered ETFs.", "Latest Q2 2026 earnings for many July-reporting companies.", "Detailed contract economics for merchant power PPAs, neocloud capacity contracts, and some grid/backlog claims." ] }, "source_registry": { "situational_awareness": { "label": "Situational Awareness thesis prior", "url": "https://situational-awareness.ai/", "type": "thesis prior", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, "iea_energy_ai": { "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, "lbnl_data_centers": { "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, "local_power_theme": { "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, "local_ai_theme": { "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, "local_biology_theme": { "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, "local_robotics_theme": { "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, "local_humanoid_theme": { "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, "power_grid_paper": { "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, "discovery_ohlc": { "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "nvidia_q1": { "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, "avgo_q2": { "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, "msft_q3": { "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, "gev_ir": { "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, "vertiv_ir": { "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, "eaton_ir": { "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, "thermo_nvidia": { "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, "tempus_q1": { "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, "natera_q1": { "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, "illumina_atlas": { "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, "nvidia_groot": { "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, "symbotic_q2": { "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, "intuitive_q1": { "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, "vaneck_smh": { "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "ft_grid": { "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, "globalx_botz": { "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "ishares_ibb": { "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "ishares_ihi": { "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "ishares_sgov": { "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "proshares_tqqq": { "label": "ProShares TQQQ issuer warning", "url": "https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/tqqq", "type": "levered ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "proshares_usd": { "label": "ProShares USD issuer warning", "url": "https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/usd", "type": "levered ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, "direxion_soxl": { "label": "Direxion SOXL issuer warning", "url": "https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs", "type": "levered ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, "fda_ai_guidance": { "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } }, "tournament": { "subagent_budget_used": 48, "stages": [ "Main agent researched in-house knowledge, report themes/nodes, papers, discovery OHLC, and current web/issuer sources before archetype construction.", "10 research scouts reviewed AI compute, power, biology, robotics, report pages, macro, valuation/technical risk, options/ETFs, source quality, and node-ranking priors.", "16 candidate archetypes were scored; 11 moved to portfolio pods.", "Each semifinal archetype received a builder, skeptic/risk auditor, and source auditor.", "Main agent merged pod outputs, rejected the standing levered-ETF portfolio, rewrote the aggressive SMID and power-pure variants, and selected 10 final portfolios.", "5 final reviewers checked ranking, sources, options/leverage, writing, and static HTML implementation." ], "research_scout_summaries": [ "AI compute: strongest evidence in NVDA/AVGO, semicap, memory, networking, and power/cooling; neoclouds and SMCI were capped.", "Power: strongest conversion is equipment, cooling, grid delivery, regulated recovery, merchant power, and gas inputs; generic demand buyers were not the cleanest power expression.", "Biology: durable exposure is data/omics, lab tools, and clinical evidence rails; TechBio remains small and catalyst-sized.", "Robotics: direct public evidence is strongest in surgical robotics, warehouse/factory automation, machine vision, and components; humanoid OEMs are watch-only.", "Macro: fragile late expansion with rates, energy, liquidity, and AI positioning risks; base cash reserve should be meaningful.", "Technical/setup: many names have run hard; local common-stock OHLC through 2026-07-06 supports staged entries and cash.", "Options/ETFs: options must be premium-at-risk; levered ETFs are tactical tools only.", "Source audit: primary sources and current issuer data are required for high evidence scores; ETF and stale local routes cap confidence." ], "archetype_rejection_log": [ { "archetype": "Pure neocloud/data-center financing", "decision": "Rejected before pods", "reason": "Too dependent on financing, customer concentration, lease economics, and FCF after capex." }, { "archetype": "Pure humanoid OEM/speculative service robotics", "decision": "Rejected before pods", "reason": "Direct public revenue evidence is tiny or absent; many leading companies are private." }, { "archetype": "Precommercial nuclear/SMR option basket", "decision": "Rejected before pods", "reason": "Policy and financing option value did not rank above current equipment, grid, and firm-power monetization." }, { "archetype": "Standalone BESS pure play", "decision": "Rejected before pods", "reason": "Operationally important but public investable evidence was too thin and ELCC/capacity conversion is uncertain." }, { "archetype": "Pure AI software demand basket", "decision": "Rejected before pods", "reason": "Useful as demand monitor, but direct capex and power nodes had stronger monetization evidence for this mandate." }, { "archetype": "Raw aggressive SMID single-name basket", "decision": "Rejected and rewritten", "reason": "Expected drawdown exceeded the risk tolerance; final Portfolio 07 uses wrappers, cash, and smaller single-name caps." }, { "archetype": "Standing levered-ETF portfolio", "decision": "Rejected after pods", "reason": "Daily-reset products were inappropriate as a standing 3-5 year allocation; rules are preserved as a restricted tactical overlay note." } ], "merge_notes": [ "Cash was raised across several portfolios after macro, technical, and skeptic review.", "S1 kept power as the largest sleeve but reduced single-name chase risk and elevated failure evidence around backlog conversion and rate recovery.", "S2 removed broad semi-ETF duplication as a core driver and raised cash.", "S4 survived only as a rewritten wrapper-heavy aggressive reset portfolio.", "S6 option premium was cut to 3% total after skeptic and final reviewer caps.", "S7 was rejected as a final portfolio and recorded as a restricted overlay, baseline 0%, max 3% NAV.", "S8 shifted toward scale equipment, grid delivery, gas pipes, and regulated recovery, with less POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX chase.", "S9 added cash and separated direct biology from compute/power infrastructure.", "S10 removed broad ETF/power overlap from the core and split direct, embedded, and adjacent robotics exposure." ] }, "node_selection_record": [ { "id": "portfolio-01", "name": "Power-First AI Buildout", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 21, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 50, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 10, "Robotics": 7, "Cash": 12 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Electrical equipment", 26 ], [ "Grid delivery", 9 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 5 ], [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 11 ], [ "Networking/semicap", 10 ], [ "Biology rails", 10 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 7 ], [ "Cash", 12 ] ], "selected_nodes": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "AI-cloud financing and miner-HPC conversions: financing, dilution, and customer concentration were not strong enough.", "Standalone BESS pure plays: important operationally, but current public evidence was weaker than firm power and grid equipment.", "Humanoid OEMs: direct public monetization is not yet disclosed." ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Neocloud financing", "Precommercial SMR developers", "Pure BESS ETF/pure plays", "Humanoid direct OEMs" ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 21, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Electrical equipment", 26 ], [ "Grid delivery", 9 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 5 ], [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 11 ], [ "Networking/semicap", 10 ], [ "Biology rails", 10 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Accelerator and AI platform leader" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon and AI networking" }, { "instrument": "ANET", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI Ethernet/networking" }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Liquid semiconductor rebalance sleeve" }, { "instrument": "AMD", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Accelerator challenger" }, { "instrument": "MRVL", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon/connectivity" }, { "instrument": "AMAT", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Semicap equipment" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 50, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Electrical equipment", 26 ], [ "Grid delivery", 9 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 5 ], [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 11 ], [ "Networking/semicap", 10 ], [ "Biology rails", 10 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Turbines, grid, electrification bottleneck" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Data-center power and cooling" }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Scaled electrical platform" }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Transmission, substation, and data-center delivery" }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Utility and electrical equipment" }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Merchant power and capacity exposure" }, { "instrument": "POWL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Switchgear pure-play starter" }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Electrical/mechanical execution" }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Firm nuclear power and capacity" }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas deliverability hedge" }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Midstream reliability support" } ] } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-02", "name": "Downside-Aware High-Risk Barbell", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 24, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 35, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 11, "Robotics": 8, "Cash": 22 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "selected_nodes": [ "SGOV reserve", "Power equipment and grid delivery", "Midstream and utilities", "Capped AI semis/cloud", "Healthcare and robotics ballast" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Small-cap AI infra", "TechBio", "Pure robotics small caps", "Options/leverage" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Levered ETFs", "Uncapped options", "Precommercial nuclear", "Pure E&P beta" ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 24, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Liquid semiconductor basket" }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Direct accelerator upside" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon and networking" }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Cloud AI platform" }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI platform and ads cash flow" }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AWS AI and retail cash flow" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 35, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power and grid OEM" }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Electrical power management" }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas infrastructure reliability" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Data-center power and cooling" }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Grid construction" }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Smart-grid wrapper" }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas pipeline scale" }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "SO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated utility ballast" }, { "instrument": "DUK", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Utility ballast" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 11, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science tools" }, { "instrument": "A", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab instruments" }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science software" }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Clinical genomics" }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI healthcare satellite" } ] } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-03", "name": "Quality Cash-Flow Compounder", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 33, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 30, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 12, "Robotics": 9, "Cash": 16 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "selected_nodes": [ "Cash-flow AI platforms", "Capped semis", "Direct power/grid", "Life-science tools", "Monetized robotics" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Small-cap AI infra", "High-short TechBio", "Pure utilities", "Neoclouds" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Levered ETFs", "Unprofitable robotics microcaps", "Pure SMR option basket" ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 33, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 9, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Cloud AI demand and cash flow" }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI platform, cloud, and ads cash flow" }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AWS AI and retail cash flow" }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI accelerator leader" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon/networking" }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Small semi basket" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 30, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common 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stock", "role": "Warehouse automation" }, { "instrument": "OUST", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lidar/perception watch" } ] } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-10", "name": "Options-Enhanced Defined-Risk", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 34.5, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 24.5, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 13, "Robotics": 7, "Cash": 21 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "selected_nodes": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Single-name option concentration", "Short-dated calls", "Levered ETFs" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Far OTM calls", "Naked short options", "Rolling losing calls without evidence", "Options layered on full common positions" ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 34.5, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Mega-cap AI beta" }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 14, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Core liquid compute exposure" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom AI silicon common sleeve" }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Small direct accelerator leader" }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Call spread", "role": "Capped upside on AI semis" }, { "instrument": "AVGO Jan 2028 LEAPS call", "weight": 0.5, "asset_type": "LEAPS call", "role": "Custom-silicon convexity" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 24.5, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 14, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Grid/electrification basket" }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Direct power/grid anchor" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power/cooling deployment" }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Call spread", "role": "Capped upside on grid orders" }, { "instrument": "GEV/VRT Jan 2028 call-spread basket", "weight": 0.5, "asset_type": "Call spread basket", "role": "Power/cooling convexity" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 13, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Biotech discovery basket" }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Medtech/procedure automation" }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab tools anchor" } ] } ] } ], "portfolio_construction_record": [ { "id": "portfolio-01", "rank": 1, "name": "Power-First AI Buildout", "strategy_label": "Best overall; physical power bottlenecks first", "badges": [ "Best overall" ], "time_horizon": "3-5 years", "review_cadence": "Monthly evidence review; quarterly rebalance; immediate review if rates, credit, or hyperscaler capex guidance breaks.", "summary": "Owns power equipment, grid delivery, cooling, merchant power, and gas deliverability first, then adds AI compute, biology, and robotics as application-layer exposure. The allocation is meant to profit if electricity delivery remains the binding constraint for domestic AI buildout.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 21, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 50, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 10, "Robotics": 7, "Cash": 12 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Electrical equipment", 26 ], [ "Grid delivery", 9 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 5 ], [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 11 ], [ "Networking/semicap", 10 ], [ "Biology rails", 10 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 7 ], [ "Cash", 12 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 85, "ETFs/look-through": 3, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 12 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 12, "largest_single_name": "GEV at 7%", "top_5_concentration": 30, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS at 50%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "High-risk single-name exposure capped by 12% cash and no row above 7%.", "fit": "Power is the highest-conviction bottleneck, but cash is retained because many equipment names are extended.", "intentional_breaks": "The portfolio intentionally overweights one macro mechanism: AI load growth converting into power equipment, grid delivery, firm power, and gas demand." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 9.2, "evidence_quality": 8.1, "direct_monetization": 8.5, "valuation_setup_risk": 6.8, "macro_resilience": 7.4, "liquidity_rebalance": 7.6, "uniqueness": 8.7, "expected_drawdown_control": 6.8 }, "total_score": 8.22, "expected_drawdown_range": "28-38%", "main_upside_driver": "Backlog and order conversion in electrical equipment, cooling, grid delivery, and firm power while AI capex remains funded.", "main_failure_mode": "Hyperscaler capex slows before power suppliers convert backlog, or regulators block cost recovery and power-price pass-through.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Dry powder for rate or AI-capex drawdowns", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Turbines, grid, electrification bottleneck", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "High-weight power equipment row; evidence needs current backlog, segment margin, and cash conversion." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Data-center power and cooling", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI rack density needs power and cooling, but row is capped because the setup is extended." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Scaled electrical platform", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Electrical equipment and data-center power exposure; source audit requires order quality and margin support." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Transmission, substation, and data-center delivery", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Grid delivery node ranked above smaller contractors because scale and utility capex conversion are cleaner." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Utility and electrical equipment", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Electrical hardware exposure with less pure AI power torque than GEV/VRT/ETN." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Accelerator and AI platform leader", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 9, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Primary evidence is NVIDIA data-center revenue and guidance; position is capped because AI capex is already a common factor across the book." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon and AI networking", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom silicon/networking evidence." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Merchant power and capacity exposure", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Power scarcity exposure. Needs PPA, hedge, and capacity-market terms before higher sizing." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "POWL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Switchgear pure-play starter", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Pure bottleneck row but technically extended; kept at starter size." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical/mechanical execution", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Grid and data-center construction exposure; source gaps cap evidence score." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CEG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Firm nuclear power and capacity", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme" ], "note": "Firm power exposure, but regulatory and PPA economics are decisive." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated grid recovery", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Utility ballast for load-growth capex recovery, not a pure AI upside row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Gas deliverability hedge", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Midstream exposure to gas-fired reliability needs." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ANET", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI Ethernet/networking", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Networking node exposure; customer concentration and architecture shifts cap sizing." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Liquid semiconductor rebalance sleeve", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "ETF wrapper. Issuer data supports implementation, not company fundamentals." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab tools and workflow anchor", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Biology rail exposure, not core power evidence." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AMD", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Accelerator challenger", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Challenger exposure sized below NVDA/AVGO." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MRVL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon/connectivity", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI interconnect/custom silicon exposure with customer concentration risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AMAT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Semicap equipment", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Semicap node exposure; China/export and cycle timing matter." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Midstream reliability support", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Secondary gas infrastructure row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "A", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab instruments and workflow", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Lab-instrument exposure with demand recovery proof burden." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Clinical genomics data", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Diagnostics growth supported by test volume and revenue; reimbursement and cash quality remain proof points." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2.5, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Surgical robotics platform", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct monetized robotics exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Factory automation", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Broad automation exposure; industrial cycle risk caps sizing." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1.5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "AI clinical-genomic platform", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "High-growth data platform, but cash losses and reimbursement quality cap confidence." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1.5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science workflow rail", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Clinical and commercial workflow software; valuation risk remains." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1.5, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Machine vision", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Machine-vision robotics proxy." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SYM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Warehouse automation watch", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "symbotic_q2", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Real automation revenue but customer concentration keeps it small." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 21, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Electrical equipment", 26 ], [ "Grid delivery", 9 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 5 ], [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 11 ], [ "Networking/semicap", 10 ], [ "Biology rails", 10 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Accelerator and AI platform leader" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon and AI networking" }, { "instrument": "ANET", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI Ethernet/networking" }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Liquid semiconductor rebalance sleeve" }, { "instrument": "AMD", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Accelerator challenger" }, { "instrument": "MRVL", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon/connectivity" }, { "instrument": "AMAT", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Semicap equipment" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 50, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Electrical equipment", 26 ], [ "Grid delivery", 9 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 5 ], [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 11 ], [ "Networking/semicap", 10 ], [ "Biology rails", 10 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Turbines, grid, electrification bottleneck" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Data-center power and cooling" }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Scaled electrical platform" }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Transmission, substation, and data-center delivery" }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Utility and electrical equipment" }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Merchant power and capacity exposure" }, { "instrument": "POWL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Switchgear pure-play starter" }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Electrical/mechanical execution" }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Firm nuclear power and capacity" }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas deliverability hedge" }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Midstream reliability support" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "AI-cloud financing and miner-HPC conversions: financing, dilution, and customer concentration were not strong enough.", "Standalone BESS pure plays: important operationally, but current public evidence was weaker than firm power and grid equipment.", "Humanoid OEMs: direct public monetization is not yet disclosed." ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Neocloud financing", "Precommercial SMR developers", "Pure BESS ETF/pure plays", "Humanoid direct OEMs" ], "cases": { "bear": "AI capex is cut, grid interconnection reform reduces scarcity, equipment lead times normalize, and merchant power faces political caps.", "base": "Grid headroom remains tight, power equipment and grid delivery convert backlog, and AI semis keep enough utilization to support the buildout.", "bull": "Behind-the-meter and grid expansion become the marginal solution for U.S. AI capacity; equipment, cooling, firm power, and gas deliverability rerate together." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "10Y/30Y yields break higher, HY spreads widen, or energy inflation forces a rates shock.", "theme": "Data-center load growth slows or model efficiency reduces power intensity faster than buildout assumptions.", "company": "Orders stop converting to margin and free cash flow; customers cancel or push out projects.", "price": "Power equipment leaders break 50/100-day support together on volume after earnings.", "timing": "The thesis is right but entry is wrong if backlog remains strong while multiples compress for several quarters." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "Hidden common drivers are AI capex liquidity, long rates, data-center power demand, copper/transformer inputs, utility regulation, natural gas, and semiconductor cycle.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "Physical power/grid bottlenecks have the best local theme support.", "NVDA/AVGO/ANET support the AI-demand proof layer." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "Power scarcity is not automatically bullish for every supplier; backlog must convert to margin and cash." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Many power lanes are May/June source runs; current market data is fresher than source prose." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "PPA economics, cancellation terms, utility rate recovery, and full call transcript refreshes." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High-weight power equipment row; evidence needs current backlog, segment margin, and cash conversion.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI rack density needs power and cooling, but row is capped because the setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical equipment and data-center power exposure; source audit requires order quality and margin support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery node ranked above smaller contractors because scale and utility capex conversion are cleaner.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical hardware exposure with less pure AI power torque than GEV/VRT/ETN.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Primary evidence is NVIDIA data-center revenue and guidance; position is capped because AI capex is already a common factor across the book.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom silicon/networking evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Power scarcity exposure. Needs PPA, hedge, and capacity-market terms before higher sizing.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High-weight power equipment row; evidence needs current backlog, segment margin, and cash conversion.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI rack density needs power and cooling, but row is capped because the setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical equipment and data-center power exposure; source audit requires order quality and margin support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery node ranked above smaller contractors because scale and utility capex conversion are cleaner.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical hardware exposure with less pure AI power torque than GEV/VRT/ETN.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Primary evidence is NVIDIA data-center revenue and guidance; position is capped because AI capex is already a common factor across the book.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom silicon/networking evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Power scarcity exposure. Needs PPA, hedge, and capacity-market terms before higher sizing.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Electrical equipment", "exposure_weight": 26, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Grid delivery", "exposure_weight": 9, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Merchant/firm power", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Accelerators/custom silicon", "exposure_weight": 11, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Networking/semicap", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biology rails", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics/automation", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 12, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper. Issuer data supports implementation, not company fundamentals.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "S1 mixed core power with adjacent biology/robotics." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Biology and robotics were capped and treated as adjacent application-layer exposure.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-02", "rank": 2, "name": "Downside-Aware High-Risk Barbell", "strategy_label": "Best downside-aware; cash plus capped theme exposure", "badges": [ "Best downside-aware" ], "time_horizon": "18-36 months", "review_cadence": "Monthly; rebalance quarterly; raise cash if rates, spreads, or AI-capex breadth deteriorate.", "summary": "Keeps the desired AI and power themes, but uses 22% SGOV/cash, a 5% single-name cap, midstream, regulated utilities, healthcare, and smaller AI weights to preserve rebalancing flexibility.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 24, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 35, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 11, "Robotics": 8, "Cash": 22 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 66, "ETFs/look-through": 12, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 22 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 22, "largest_single_name": "GEV, ETN, and WMB at 5%", "top_5_concentration": 25, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS at 35%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "Very-high-beta rows capped at 4% or less.", "fit": "The portfolio is for holding the theme while preserving the ability to rebalance into a macro or AI-capex drawdown.", "intentional_breaks": "It accepts cash drag to lower forced-selling risk." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 8, "evidence_quality": 8.2, "direct_monetization": 7.3, "valuation_setup_risk": 7.9, "macro_resilience": 8.4, "liquidity_rebalance": 9.2, "uniqueness": 7.2, "expected_drawdown_control": 8.5 }, "total_score": 8.08, "expected_drawdown_range": "18-35%", "main_upside_driver": "Power/grid and AI infrastructure keep compounding while cash funds pullback buys.", "main_failure_mode": "Cash drags in a continued risk-on market, while utilities and midstream fail to protect during a rates shock.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 22, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Drawdown buffer and rebalance capital", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "SGOV is a Treasury ETF, not literal cash; issuer data supports liquidity and duration." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power and grid OEM", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped high-conviction power row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical power management", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scale equipment exposure with less single-project risk than smaller suppliers." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Gas infrastructure reliability", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Gas deliverability ballast, not a pure hedge." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Liquid semiconductor basket", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "Issuer source supports wrapper. Evidence score capped because ETF look-through is not company proof." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Direct accelerator upside", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, but capped for concentration and valuation risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon and networking", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI semiconductor and custom silicon exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Cloud AI platform", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Cloud and RPO evidence; capex return remains a proof burden." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Data-center power and cooling", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "High-beta power/cooling row sized below power-first portfolios." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Grid construction", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Grid buildout execution exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Smart-grid wrapper", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Issuer methodology and holdings support grid exposure; no local ETF OHLC." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Gas pipeline scale", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Secondary gas infrastructure row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated grid recovery", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Rate recovery and customer contribution proof are key." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated utility ballast", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Utility stabilizer, not a pure data-center play." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI platform and ads cash flow", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Cloud/model infrastructure route; AI spend return must be monitored." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AWS AI and retail cash flow", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AWS capex and utilization matter." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science tools", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Healthcare ballast and scientific tools exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "A", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab instruments", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Lab/instrument recovery needs Q2 proof." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Procedure robotics", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct robotics cash-flow exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "DUK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Utility ballast", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Defensive utility row, not pure AI load exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science software", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Vertical software rail." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Clinical genomics", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Diagnostics proof depends on reimbursement, ASP, and cash flow." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Liquid automation basket", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "AI healthcare satellite", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small high-growth satellite only." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Industrial automation option", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Cyclical automation option." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Machine vision satellite", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Machine vision exposure." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 24, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Liquid semiconductor basket" }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Direct accelerator upside" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon and networking" }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Cloud AI platform" }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI platform and ads cash flow" }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AWS AI and retail cash flow" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 35, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power and grid OEM" }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Electrical power management" }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas infrastructure reliability" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Data-center power and cooling" }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Grid construction" }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Smart-grid wrapper" }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas pipeline scale" }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "SO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated utility ballast" }, { "instrument": "DUK", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Utility ballast" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 11, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 22 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 19 ], [ "Utilities/midstream", 16 ], [ "AI semis", 14 ], [ "Cloud platforms", 10 ], [ "Healthcare rails", 11 ], [ "Robotics/automation", 8 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science tools" }, { "instrument": "A", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab instruments" }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science software" }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Clinical genomics" }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI healthcare satellite" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "SGOV reserve", "Power equipment and grid delivery", "Midstream and utilities", "Capped AI semis/cloud", "Healthcare and robotics ballast" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Small-cap AI infra", "TechBio", "Pure robotics small caps", "Options/leverage" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Levered ETFs", "Uncapped options", "Precommercial nuclear", "Pure E&P beta" ], "cases": { "bear": "AI capex guidance slows, grid names derate, rates rise, and healthcare tools stay weak. Cash provides buying power but does not eliminate drawdown.", "base": "AI and electrification continue with periodic multiple compression. SGOV funds rebalancing while power and healthcare participate.", "bull": "Power scarcity, AI infrastructure orders, cloud monetization, and life-science spending improve together; the book participates but lags max-beta variants." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Rates and credit stress rise enough that utilities, semis, and healthcare all sell off together.", "theme": "AI infrastructure demand proves cyclical and power equipment backlogs convert at lower margins.", "company": "Midstream or utility rows face policy/rate-case pressure while AI rows miss guidance.", "price": "SMH/NVDA/AVGO/MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN all lose trend support together.", "timing": "Cash is too high if risk appetite broadens and drawdown opportunities do not appear." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "Hidden drivers include AI capex, U.S. mega-cap tech, long-duration multiples, rate-sensitive utilities, midstream policy, and healthcare reimbursement.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "SGOV is accepted as cash-like ETF ballast.", "Power/grid, gas/utilities, AI capex, healthcare, and robotics rows have sourceable routes." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "SGOV is not literal cash or FDIC-equivalent.", "Utilities and midstream are stabilizers, not true hedges." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "ETF technicals are issuer-backed, not local OHLC-backed." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Detailed Q2 evidence and ETF local OHLC." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 22, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "SGOV is a Treasury ETF, not literal cash; issuer data supports liquidity and duration.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped high-conviction power row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale equipment exposure with less single-project risk than smaller suppliers.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Gas deliverability ballast, not a pure hedge.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer source supports wrapper. Evidence score capped because ETF look-through is not company proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, but capped for concentration and valuation risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor and custom silicon exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cloud and RPO evidence; capex return remains a proof burden.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 22, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "SGOV is a Treasury ETF, not literal cash; issuer data supports liquidity and duration.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped high-conviction power row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale equipment exposure with less single-project risk than smaller suppliers.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Gas deliverability ballast, not a pure hedge.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer source supports wrapper. Evidence score capped because ETF look-through is not company proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, but capped for concentration and valuation risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor and custom silicon exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cloud and RPO evidence; 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confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 22, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "SGOV is a Treasury ETF, not literal cash; issuer data supports liquidity and duration.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer source supports wrapper. Evidence score capped because ETF look-through is not company proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Issuer methodology and holdings support grid exposure; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Could duplicate S3/S5 unless its role is explicit." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Preserved a larger cash reserve and more midstream/utility ballast than S3 or S5.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-03", "rank": 3, "name": "Quality Cash-Flow Compounder", "strategy_label": "Best balanced; cash-flow platforms plus physical power", "badges": [ "Best balanced" ], "time_horizon": "3-5 years", "review_cadence": "Monthly evidence check; quarterly rebalance; reduce semis/platforms if AI capex returns fail to show up in cloud margin or RPO conversion.", "summary": "Uses cash-flow platforms, capped semis, direct power infrastructure, utilities/midstream, life-science tools, and monetized robotics. The goal is to express the themes without turning the book into a QQQ or SMH clone.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 33, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 30, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 12, "Robotics": 9, "Cash": 16 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 80, "ETFs/look-through": 4, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 16 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 16, "largest_single_name": "MSFT at 9%", "top_5_concentration": 31, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "AI capex/data centers at 33%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "AI semis held to 12%; no speculative row above 3%.", "fit": "Balanced expression for 3-5 years with direct power/grid and a meaningful cash reserve.", "intentional_breaks": "Mega-cap platform exposure is allowed because cash generation funds through cycles, but it is capped to avoid closet QQQ." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 8.1, "evidence_quality": 8.4, "direct_monetization": 7.8, "valuation_setup_risk": 7.7, "macro_resilience": 8, "liquidity_rebalance": 8.8, "uniqueness": 7, "expected_drawdown_control": 8 }, "total_score": 7.98, "expected_drawdown_range": "20-35%", "main_upside_driver": "Cloud and AI platform cash flow, power/grid orders, lab tools recovery, and robotics procedure/automation growth.", "main_failure_mode": "The portfolio becomes a smoother-looking long-duration growth basket if rates rise and AI capex returns lag.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 16, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Rebalance reserve", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Cash-like ETF ballast." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 9, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Cloud AI demand and cash flow", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Cloud/RPO evidence; AI capex return remains the proof burden." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI platform, cloud, and ads cash flow", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scaled platform exposure; AI capex monetization must be watched." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AWS AI and retail cash flow", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AWS demand and capex conversion are the main evidence path." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI accelerator leader", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, capped below S2." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon/networking", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI semiconductor and infrastructure software exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Small semi basket", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "ETF wrapper; kept small to limit duplicate NVDA/AVGO." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power and electrification bottleneck", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct physical power exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical equipment", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scaled data-center power route." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power and cooling", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "High-beta but sourceable cooling/power exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Grid delivery", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Utility/data-center EPC route." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Smart-grid ETF breadth", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Issuer-backed grid wrapper." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated grid recovery", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Utility stabilizer." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated power ballast", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Load growth plus rate-case risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Gas infrastructure", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Power reliability gas route." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab tools and services", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "High-quality lab infrastructure route." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science tools", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Bioprocessing and diagnostics recovery proof needed." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "A", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Analytical instruments", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Lab instrument/workflow exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science workflow software", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Software evidence rail." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Surgical robotics", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct procedure robotics." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SYK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Orthopedic robotics and medtech", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Robotics within broader medtech." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Factory automation", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Industrial-cycle automation route." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Machine vision", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Machine-vision satellite." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Robotics breadth", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "note": "ETF wrapper with mixed purity." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 33, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 9, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Cloud AI demand and cash flow" }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI platform, cloud, and ads cash flow" }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AWS AI and retail cash flow" }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI accelerator leader" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon/networking" }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Small semi basket" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 30, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power and electrification bottleneck" }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Electrical equipment" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power and cooling" }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Grid delivery" }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Smart-grid ETF breadth" }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "SO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated power ballast" }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas infrastructure" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 12, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 16 ], [ "Hyperscaler platforms", 21 ], [ "AI semis", 12 ], [ "Power equipment/grid", 21 ], [ "Utilities/gas", 9 ], [ "Biology rails", 12 ], [ "Robotics", 9 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab tools and services" }, { "instrument": "DHR", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science tools" }, { "instrument": "A", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Analytical instruments" }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science workflow software" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "Cash-flow AI platforms", "Capped semis", "Direct power/grid", "Life-science tools", "Monetized robotics" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Small-cap AI infra", "High-short TechBio", "Pure utilities", "Neoclouds" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Levered ETFs", "Unprofitable robotics microcaps", "Pure SMR option basket" ], "cases": { "bear": "Hyperscaler capex slows, GPU orders digest, power names derate, and rates pressure utilities and medtech.", "base": "AI demand grows, capex shifts toward power/grid, biology/robotics recover gradually, and cash funds volatility.", "bull": "AI capex converts to durable cloud revenue while power shortages and lab/medtech recovery broaden." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Long rates rise while labor and energy data weaken.", "theme": "AI capex does not convert to cloud revenue or power orders.", "company": "Cloud margins, power orders, lab demand, or procedure growth disappoint together.", "price": "Mega-cap platforms and power names break trend simultaneously.", "timing": "The right themes continue, but starting multiples compress faster than earnings grow." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "Main overlap is MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/NVDA/AVGO/SMH plus power equipment. Utilities, midstream, healthcare, and cash reduce but do not remove the common AI capex and rates factor.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "High-quality platforms and power rows have better source support than small speculative names." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "Quality label does not eliminate valuation risk." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Healthcare tools need Q2 organic demand proof." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Latest call transcripts and ETF local OHLC." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 16, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like ETF ballast.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 9, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cloud/RPO evidence; AI capex return remains the proof burden.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scaled platform exposure; AI capex monetization must be watched.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AWS demand and capex conversion are the main evidence path.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, capped below S2.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor and infrastructure software exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct physical power exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scaled data-center power route.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], 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"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house 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"local_robotics_theme", "ishares_sgov", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics", "exposure_weight": 9, "selected_node_context": [ "Cash-flow AI platforms", "Capped semis", "Direct power/grid", "Life-science tools", "Monetized robotics" ], "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "local_power_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "ishares_sgov", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 16, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like ETF ballast.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper; kept small to limit duplicate NVDA/AVGO.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Issuer-backed grid wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Could become closet QQQ/XLU if platform and utility rows dominate." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised direct power/grid and capped SMH; preserved cash.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-04", "rank": 4, "name": "Power Equipment And Grid Delivery Pure", "strategy_label": "Power-pure version with scale bias", "badges": [], "time_horizon": "18-36 months", "review_cadence": "Monthly; force review after PJM/ERCOT/FERC rule changes, utility rate-case decisions, or a 20% drawdown.", "summary": "The cleanest power-heavy expression. It shifts away from the hottest small equipment and contractor names toward scaled electrical platforms, grid delivery, regulated recovery, gas pipes, and selective firm power.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 6, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 74, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 4, "Robotics": 4, "Cash": 12 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Scale electrical equipment", 28 ], [ "Grid delivery", 15 ], [ "Utilities/recovery", 13 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 9 ], [ "AI demand proof", 6 ], [ "Adjacent biology/robotics", 8 ], [ "Cash", 12 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 84, "ETFs/look-through": 4, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 12 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 12, "largest_single_name": "ETN at 8%", "top_5_concentration": 32, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS at 74%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "Small parabolic power names capped at 2%.", "fit": "This portfolio intentionally answers what to own if power remains the scarce input.", "intentional_breaks": "Very high single-theme concentration is intentional; cash and scale bias are the risk controls." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 8.8, "evidence_quality": 7.6, "direct_monetization": 8.4, "valuation_setup_risk": 6.8, "macro_resilience": 7.4, "liquidity_rebalance": 7.8, "uniqueness": 8.2, "expected_drawdown_control": 6.9 }, "total_score": 7.78, "expected_drawdown_range": "22-38%", "main_upside_driver": "AI load growth turns into electrical equipment orders, grid delivery, rate-base recovery, firm power, and gas-pipeline demand.", "main_failure_mode": "Power demand is real but already priced; rate recovery, capacity markets, or backlog conversion disappoint.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Power-theme volatility reserve", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 8, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Scaled electrical platform", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scale and diversification rank above smaller equipment names." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Transmission and utility/data-center delivery", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Grid delivery row with scale." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Utility/electrical equipment", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scale utility hardware exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Generation, turbines, and electrification", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped despite strong theme fit because price has rerated." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Gas transmission to power demand", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Preferred gas input row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated grid recovery", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Utility capex recovery proof needed." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Load growth and grid recovery", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Regulated load-growth row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical/mechanical contractor", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Grid/data-center execution row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CEG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Firm nuclear power", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme" ], "note": "Firm capacity exposure; PPA/regulatory terms matter." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power and cooling proof-demand sleeve", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Kept smaller than S1 due extension." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Smart-grid wrapper", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Gas pipeline scale", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Secondary gas input row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Merchant power", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Selective merchant exposure; not a full basket." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Regulated power ballast", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Utility ballast." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Tools ballast", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small adjacent biology exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Surgical robotics quality sleeve", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small adjacent robotics exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI demand proof", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Demand proof, not core exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon proof", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Demand proof, not core exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Hyperscaler demand signal", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Cloud demand signal." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "POWL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Switchgear starter", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped due extension and project risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "FIX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "MEP/cooling execution starter", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped due extension." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MTZ", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Grid services secondary", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Secondary contractor exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "AI health data option", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Tiny adjacent biology option." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Robotics breadth", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "note": "Small ETF wrapper exposure." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 74, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Scale electrical equipment", 28 ], [ "Grid delivery", 15 ], [ "Utilities/recovery", 13 ], [ "Merchant/firm power", 7 ], [ "Fuel inputs", 9 ], [ "AI demand proof", 6 ], [ "Adjacent biology/robotics", 8 ], [ "Cash", 12 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 8, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Scaled electrical platform" }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Transmission and utility/data-center delivery" }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Utility/electrical equipment" }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Generation, turbines, and electrification" }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas transmission to power demand" }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "ETR", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Load growth and grid recovery" }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Electrical/mechanical contractor" }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Firm nuclear power" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power and cooling proof-demand sleeve" }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Smart-grid wrapper" }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Gas pipeline scale" }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Merchant power" }, { "instrument": "SO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Regulated power ballast" }, { "instrument": "POWL", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Switchgear starter" }, { "instrument": "FIX", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "MEP/cooling execution starter" }, { "instrument": "MTZ", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Grid services secondary" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX chase", "Broad merchant basket", "Standalone BESS pure plays", "LNG/export beta" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Precommercial SMR developers", "Miner-HPC power campuses", "Pure battery commodity ETFs" ], "cases": { "bear": "AI load growth persists but regulators block cost recovery, capacity prices fall, and equipment multiples compress.", "base": "AI load growth supports equipment orders, grid delivery, gas reliability, and regulated recovery while cash absorbs volatility.", "bull": "Power availability stays the binding constraint and scaled equipment plus grid-delivery names convert high-margin backlog." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Rates stay restrictive and utility funding costs rise faster than allowed returns.", "theme": "Data-center interconnection queues clear or load growth forecasts are cut.", "company": "ETN/GEV/VRT/PWR/EME miss margin or cash-conversion expectations despite backlog.", "price": "Equipment and contractor nodes sell off together after earnings while utilities fail to offset.", "timing": "The theme remains right but the 2025-2026 rerating leaves no margin of safety." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "This is intentionally one-theme-heavy. Hidden drivers are long rates, AI load growth, electrical equipment multiples, labor/copper costs, rate-case politics, and gas power policy.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "Power-pure value chain is sourceable through equipment, grid delivery, utilities, merchant power, and gas inputs." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "Broad power-pure equal weighting was rejected; smaller parabolic names were capped." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Several equipment lanes are stale and need transcript refresh." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Utility rate-case orders, merchant PPA economics, backlog margin terms." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 8, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale and diversification rank above smaller equipment names.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery row with scale.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale utility hardware exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped despite strong theme fit because price has rerated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Preferred gas input row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Utility capex recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETR", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated load-growth row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid/data-center execution row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Firm capacity exposure; PPA/regulatory terms matter.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Kept smaller than S1 due extension.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Secondary gas input row.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 8, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale and diversification rank above smaller equipment names.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery row with scale.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale utility hardware exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped despite strong theme fit because price has rerated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Preferred gas input row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Utility capex recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETR", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated load-growth row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid/data-center execution row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Firm capacity exposure; PPA/regulatory terms matter.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Kept smaller than S1 due extension.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Secondary gas input row.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Scale electrical equipment", "exposure_weight": 28, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Grid delivery", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Utilities/recovery", "exposure_weight": 13, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Merchant/firm power", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Fuel inputs", "exposure_weight": 9, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "AI demand proof", "exposure_weight": 6, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Adjacent biology/robotics", "exposure_weight": 8, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 12, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Small ETF wrapper exposure.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "0% cash and 38% top-five concentration in raw build were too aggressive." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Added 12% cash, capped small names, and used scaled equipment/grid delivery as core.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-05", "rank": 5, "name": "AI Capex Full-Stack", "strategy_label": "Data-center supply-chain stack with cash and power support", "badges": [], "time_horizon": "3-5 years", "review_cadence": "Monthly; rebalance if a node drifts 25% from target or hyperscaler capex evidence changes.", "summary": "Owns compute, custom silicon, foundry, semicap, HBM, networking, servers, power/cooling, and grid support. The final version raises cash and avoids adding a large SMH position on top of single-name semis.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 62, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 15, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 4, "Robotics": 4, "Cash": 15 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", 26 ], [ "Foundry/semicap", 13 ], [ "Memory/storage", 6 ], [ "Networking/interconnect", 11 ], [ "Servers/EMS", 6 ], [ "Power/cooling/grid", 15 ], [ "Cloud demand", 7 ], [ "Cash", 15 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 85, "ETFs/look-through": 0, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 15 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 15, "largest_single_name": "NVDA at 8%", "top_5_concentration": 29, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "AI capex/data centers at 62%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "High-beta interconnect and memory rows capped at 4% or below.", "fit": "The most AI-capex-sensitive portfolio, but with cash and power support to reduce one-node GPU risk.", "intentional_breaks": "The portfolio intentionally concentrates in one capital cycle." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 9.1, "evidence_quality": 8.1, "direct_monetization": 8.7, "valuation_setup_risk": 5.8, "macro_resilience": 6.5, "liquidity_rebalance": 8, "uniqueness": 7.4, "expected_drawdown_control": 5.9 }, "total_score": 7.62, "expected_drawdown_range": "30-40%", "main_upside_driver": "AI capex keeps broadening across compute, custom silicon, memory, networking, racks, and data-center power.", "main_failure_mode": "Hyperscalers shift from buildout to digestion, or customer concentration and valuation compression hit the supply chain together.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 15, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Reserve for AI-capex drawdowns", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Cash reserve because many AI-capex names are extended." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Accelerator platform anchor", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 9, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Highest-quality direct AI compute evidence." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon and AI networking", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 9, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom ASIC evidence." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TSM", "asset_type": "ADR", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Leading-edge foundry bottleneck", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "note": "Foundry route; geopolitical and ADR risk noted." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "AI data-center power/cooling", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Physical delivery node inside AI capex stack." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AMD", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Accelerator challenger", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Real but challenger evidence; smaller than NVDA/AVGO." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ASML", "asset_type": "ADR", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "EUV lithography bottleneck", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "note": "Semicap/foundry bottleneck; non-U.S. ADR but U.S.-listed." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AMAT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Semicap process/packaging", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "AI WFE and packaging route." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MU", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "HBM and DRAM cycle", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Memory bottleneck, capped for cyclicality." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ANET", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI Ethernet switching", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Networking node with customer concentration risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Cloud demand and monetization check", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Demand-side proof monitor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical distribution", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Power support to the AI stack." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MRVL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon and optics", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Custom silicon/interconnect with concentration risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "DELL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI server integrator", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Revenue conversion node; margins and working capital matter." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "JBL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "EMS and systems integration", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Systems build partner." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Cloud/TPU demand-side monitor", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Demand-side AI platform exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": 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"AMAT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Semicap process/packaging" }, { "instrument": "MU", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "HBM and DRAM cycle" }, { "instrument": "ANET", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI Ethernet switching" }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Cloud demand and monetization check" }, { "instrument": "MRVL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon and optics" }, { "instrument": "DELL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI server integrator" }, { "instrument": "JBL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "EMS and systems integration" }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Cloud/TPU demand-side monitor" }, { "instrument": "CRDO", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AEC/interconnect satellite" }, { "instrument": "ALAB", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common 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}, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Highest-quality direct AI compute evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom ASIC evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TSM", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Foundry route; geopolitical and ADR risk noted.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Physical delivery node inside AI capex stack.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AMD", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": 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"option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Power support to the AI stack.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 15, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": 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"option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom ASIC evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TSM", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI 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"Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 15, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because many AI-capex names are extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Small robotics diversifier.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Too much duplicated supplier beta in raw build." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised cash and avoided a large ETF overlay on top of single-name semis.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-06", "rank": 6, "name": "ETF/Liquid Implementation", "strategy_label": "Most liquid implementation; de-overlapped ETF stack", "badges": [], "time_horizon": "1-3 years with quarterly rebalance", "review_cadence": "Monthly drift check; quarterly rebalance; force rebalance if semis plus QQQ exceed 35%.", "summary": "Uses liquid ETFs and a few direct anchors. It sacrifices direct monetization for simplicity, liquidity, and file-friendly source trails.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 30, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 28, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 16, "Robotics": 8, "Cash": 18 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "SMH semis", 20 ], [ "QQQ platforms", 10 ], [ "GRID/electrical", 22 ], [ "Power anchors", 6 ], [ "Biology/medtech ETFs", 14 ], [ "Robotics ETF", 8 ], [ "Cash", 18 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 8, "ETFs/look-through": 74, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 18 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 18, "largest_single_name": "ETF row GRID at 22%; direct single names max 3%", "top_5_concentration": 68, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "AI capex/data centers at 30%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "ETF beta dominates; direct high-beta single names capped at 3%.", "fit": "For users who want liquid implementation without managing many single-name rows.", "intentional_breaks": "Concentration is accepted at the ETF level because implementation simplicity is the point." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 7.5, "evidence_quality": 7.7, "direct_monetization": 6.7, "valuation_setup_risk": 7.5, "macro_resilience": 7.8, "liquidity_rebalance": 9.4, "uniqueness": 6.1, "expected_drawdown_control": 8.1 }, "total_score": 7.52, "expected_drawdown_range": "20-32%", "main_upside_driver": "AI semis, smart-grid equipment, robotics automation, and biotech/medtech breadth participate without single-name implementation complexity.", "main_failure_mode": "ETF look-through becomes hidden NVDA/mega-cap/industrial beta while cash drags during a continued rally.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Rebalance reserve", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Semiconductor production/equipment basket", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Nasdaq-100 AI platform sleeve", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Smart-grid and electrical infrastructure", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Robotics and automation basket", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Biotech R&D basket", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Medtech and procedure automation", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power/cooling anchor", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Single-name anchor where ETFs under-capture BTM/cooling." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Generation and electrification anchor", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Single-name anchor where ETFs under-capture generation/electrification." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab tools anchor", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scientific tools anchor." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 30, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "SMH semis", 20 ], [ "QQQ platforms", 10 ], [ "GRID/electrical", 22 ], [ "Power anchors", 6 ], [ "Biology/medtech ETFs", 14 ], [ "Robotics ETF", 8 ], [ "Cash", 18 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Semiconductor production/equipment basket" }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Nasdaq-100 AI platform sleeve" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 28, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "SMH semis", 20 ], [ "QQQ platforms", 10 ], [ "GRID/electrical", 22 ], [ "Power anchors", 6 ], [ "Biology/medtech ETFs", 14 ], [ "Robotics ETF", 8 ], [ "Cash", 18 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Smart-grid and electrical infrastructure" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power/cooling anchor" }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Generation and electrification anchor" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 16, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "SMH semis", 20 ], [ "QQQ platforms", 10 ], [ "GRID/electrical", 22 ], [ "Power anchors", 6 ], [ "Biology/medtech ETFs", 14 ], [ "Robotics ETF", 8 ], [ "Cash", 18 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Biotech R&D basket" }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Medtech and procedure automation" }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab tools anchor" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Direct single-name power equipment", "Direct small/mid AI infra", "TechBio" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "SOXX plus SMH duplication", "XBI as a large sleeve", "ROBO until current issuer package is captured", "Pure battery ETFs" ], "cases": { "bear": "Semis, QQQ, and robotics de-rate together; cash helps rebalance but does not hedge ETF beta.", "base": "AI capex shifts into semis plus power/grid, while biotech/medtech and robotics add breadth.", "bull": "AI workloads, grid bottlenecks, robotics adoption, and scientific tooling expand together." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Higher rates hit semis, biotech, and infrastructure while SGOV income falls on rate cuts after a rally.", "theme": "AI capex pauses and grid buildout delays persist.", "company": "ETF top holdings show concentration in the wrong names or methodology drift.", "price": "SMH/QQQ/BOTZ all break down while GRID fails to hold relative strength.", "timing": "The liquid wrappers are easy to trade but enter after a large semis rally." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "SMH, QQQ, BOTZ, VRT, and GEV all retain AI capex overlap. ETF evidence is implementation evidence, not underlying operating proof.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "ETF wrappers are liquid and sourceable through issuer pages." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "ETF rows do not prove constituent fundamentals." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Local ETF OHLC is missing for key rows." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Current downloadable holdings/prospectus packages for every ETF row." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "SMH semis", "exposure_weight": 20, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "QQQ platforms", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "GRID/electrical", "exposure_weight": 22, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Power anchors", "exposure_weight": 6, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biology/medtech ETFs", "exposure_weight": 14, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics ETF", "exposure_weight": 8, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 18, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Loose S5 was too SMH/QQQ-heavy and under-cashed." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised SGOV to 18%, made GRID real, and capped direct single-name anchors.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-07", "rank": 7, "name": "Aggressive Picks-And-Shovels Reset", "strategy_label": "Best aggressive; high cash plus capped SMID torque", "badges": [ "Best aggressive" ], "time_horizon": "12-36 months", "review_cadence": "Weekly technical/evidence check; quarterly rebalance; deploy cash only after pullbacks or fresh backlog/revenue confirmation.", "summary": "A rewritten aggressive SMID version. It keeps the small/mid-cap torque, but uses 25% cash, SMH and GRID wrappers, and tight caps on the gap-risk names that failed skeptic review.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 30, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 34, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 5, "Robotics": 6, "Cash": 25 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 25 ], [ "SMH semis wrapper", 16 ], [ "GRID electrical wrapper", 15 ], [ "Grid/services singles", 12 ], [ "AI interconnect/memory/EMS", 14 ], [ "Merchant power", 3 ], [ "Biology data", 5 ], [ "Robotics automation", 6 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 44, "ETFs/look-through": 31, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 25 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 25, "largest_single_name": "PWR and EME at 4%", "top_5_concentration": 42, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS at 34%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "Speculative single-name rows capped at 1-3%.", "fit": "This version keeps aggressive upside while respecting the 40% drawdown tolerance.", "intentional_breaks": "It intentionally carries large cash because the targeted high-beta names are extended." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 8.7, "evidence_quality": 6.9, "direct_monetization": 7.8, "valuation_setup_risk": 5.9, "macro_resilience": 6.4, "liquidity_rebalance": 8.1, "uniqueness": 8.5, "expected_drawdown_control": 6.2 }, "total_score": 7.3, "expected_drawdown_range": "25-38%", "main_upside_driver": "Capped exposure to high-torque AI interconnect, electrical gear, grid services, memory, and automation while cash funds a better entry.", "main_failure_mode": "The same AI-capex factor hits AI hardware, power contractors, biology, and automation together before cash is deployed.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 25, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Entry control and drawdown reserve", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "High reserve is intentional because the SMID setup is extended." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 16, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Semi wrapper replacing many single-name satellites", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "ETF wrapper used to avoid overloading CRDO/ALAB/MU/WDC individually." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 15, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical/grid wrapper", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Power wrapper used to avoid overloading POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Scale grid delivery", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Grid delivery anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Electrical/mechanical execution", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Execution anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "FIX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "MEP/cooling torque", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped high-beta row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "POWL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Switchgear torque", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped because 1-year return and drawdown risk are high." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CRDO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "AI interconnect torque", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Customer concentration and gap risk cap size." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MU", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "HBM/memory cycle", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Memory cycle row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "JBL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "EMS/server-power build", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Systems integration row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Merchant power", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Single merchant row; TLN left out to reduce policy risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MOD", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Thermal systems", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped thermal/cooling row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ALAB", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "PCIe/CXL connectivity", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Capped due concentration and extension." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Compute anchor", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small liquid anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "AI health data", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small high-beta biology row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Clinical genomics", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Diagnostics data row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Machine vision", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Automation/vision exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AME", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Precision components", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Component quality row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SYM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Warehouse automation watch", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "symbotic_q2", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Customer concentration keeps it tiny." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "OUST", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Lidar/perception watch", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Dilution and profitability risk keep it tiny." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TXG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Single-cell/spatial data", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small biology data row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "WDC", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Storage cycle satellite", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Tiny storage cycle row." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 30, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 25 ], [ "SMH semis wrapper", 16 ], [ "GRID electrical wrapper", 15 ], [ "Grid/services singles", 12 ], [ "AI 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wrapper used to avoid overloading POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery anchor.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Execution anchor.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 25, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High reserve is intentional because the SMID setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 16, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper used to avoid overloading CRDO/ALAB/MU/WDC individually.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 15, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Power wrapper used to avoid overloading POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery anchor.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Execution anchor.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 25, "selected_node_context": [ "Wrappers for semis and grid", "Scale grid delivery", "Capped AI interconnect", "Capped memory/EMS", "Small biology/robotics optionality" ], "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", 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"Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "SMH semis wrapper", "exposure_weight": 16, "selected_node_context": [ "Wrappers for semis and grid", "Scale grid delivery", "Capped AI interconnect", "Capped memory/EMS", "Small biology/robotics optionality" ], "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "GRID electrical wrapper", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Wrappers for semis and grid", "Scale grid delivery", "Capped AI interconnect", "Capped memory/EMS", "Small biology/robotics optionality" ], "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Grid/services singles", "exposure_weight": 12, "selected_node_context": [ "Wrappers for semis and grid", "Scale grid delivery", "Capped AI interconnect", "Capped 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"https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "AI interconnect/memory/EMS", "exposure_weight": 14, "selected_node_context": [ "Wrappers for semis and grid", "Scale grid delivery", "Capped AI interconnect", "Capped memory/EMS", "Small biology/robotics optionality" ], "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics automation", "exposure_weight": 6, "selected_node_context": [ "Wrappers for semis and grid", "Scale grid delivery", "Capped AI interconnect", "Capped memory/EMS", "Small biology/robotics optionality" ], "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": 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"as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 25, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High reserve is intentional because the SMID setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 16, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper used to avoid overloading CRDO/ALAB/MU/WDC individually.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 15, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Power wrapper used to avoid overloading POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Expected drawdown exceeded risk tolerance in raw build." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised cash to 25%, wrapper-wrapped major nodes, and capped speculative rows.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-08", "rank": 8, "name": "AI Biology Discovery Stack", "strategy_label": "Biology/data/tools version with compute scaffold", "badges": [], "time_horizon": "3-5 years", "review_cadence": "Monthly; force review after Q2 earnings, reimbursement changes, major clinical/regulatory data, or biotech funding stress.", "summary": "Owns biology data, diagnostics, lab tools, clinical software, and a compute/power scaffold. It does not claim broad disclosed AI-biology revenue where companies have not disclosed it.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 15, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 4, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 62, "Robotics": 0, "Cash": 19 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 19 ], [ "Diagnostics/omics", 26 ], [ "Lab tools", 19 ], [ "Clinical/evidence software", 9 ], [ "TechBio optionals", 3 ], [ "Biotech ETF breadth", 8 ], [ "Scientific compute", 15 ], [ "Power support", 4 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 73, "ETFs/look-through": 8, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 19 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 19, "largest_single_name": "TMO at 8%", "top_5_concentration": 31, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "AI biology/scientific discovery at 62%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "TechBio optionals capped at 3% total.", "fit": "Best for expressing AI-enabled discovery without buying a basket of unprofitable platform companies.", "intentional_breaks": "The portfolio intentionally gives up robotics exposure to keep the biology thesis clean." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 8.3, "evidence_quality": 6.7, "direct_monetization": 6.4, "valuation_setup_risk": 5.9, "macro_resilience": 6.5, "liquidity_rebalance": 7.6, "uniqueness": 8.4, "expected_drawdown_control": 6.7 }, "total_score": 6.99, "expected_drawdown_range": "25-35%", "main_upside_driver": "Diagnostics volume, biology data generation, lab-tool recovery, clinical software adoption, and scientific compute remain funded.", "main_failure_mode": "AI biology remains scientifically interesting but value accrues to pharma or private companies rather than public tools/data vendors.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Q2 evidence protection", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab tools and services anchor", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Durable lab-tools route; AI collaboration is not counted as revenue proof." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Clinical genomics and MRD", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Revenue/test-volume evidence, but reimbursement and cash quality decide durability." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ILMN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Sequencing data layer", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "illumina_atlas", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Biology data infrastructure, with instrument/reagent cycle risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science tools", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Bioprocessing/tools recovery proof needed." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Scientific compute scaffold", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Enabling compute, not direct biology revenue." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "AI precision medicine data", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct data/app growth but cash losses and short interest cap confidence." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "DeepMind/Isomorphic and cloud AI scaffold", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Compute/model scaffold; biology-specific revenue not disclosed." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Life-science workflow software", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Regulated workflow rail." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GH", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Liquid biopsy optionality", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Diagnostics data row; payer and ASP evidence required." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TXG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Single-cell/spatial data", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "High-beta biology data row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "QGEN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Sample prep and bioinformatics", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme" ], "note": "Supportive biology workflow row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "A", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Analytical instruments", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Lab tools row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "IQV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Clinical/data evidence rail", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Clinical and RWE rail." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Biotech funding and discovery breadth", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "XBI", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Equal-weight biotech optionality", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "note": "Used as high-beta funding window proxy; issuer source should be refreshed if traded." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom silicon scaffold", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Compute/networking scaffold, not direct biology revenue." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Azure AI/HPC scaffold", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scientific compute and cloud platform scaffold." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MEDP", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "CRO execution", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Clinical execution rail." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CERT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Biosimulation option", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "fda_ai_guidance", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Biosimulation/MIDD option; small due services softness." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SDGR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Computational chemistry option", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "TechBio option capped." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "RXRX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "AI phenomics option", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "TechBio option capped due cash burn and binary data risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Grid support", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Small power support for compute-heavy scientific discovery." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Data-center power/cooling", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Power support only." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 15, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 19 ], [ "Diagnostics/omics", 26 ], [ "Lab tools", 19 ], [ "Clinical/evidence software", 9 ], [ "TechBio optionals", 3 ], [ "Biotech ETF breadth", 8 ], [ "Scientific compute", 15 ], [ "Power support", 4 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Scientific compute scaffold" }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "DeepMind/Isomorphic and cloud AI scaffold" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom silicon scaffold" }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Azure AI/HPC scaffold" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 62, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 19 ], [ "Diagnostics/omics", 26 ], [ "Lab tools", 19 ], [ "Clinical/evidence software", 9 ], [ "TechBio optionals", 3 ], [ "Biotech ETF breadth", 8 ], [ "Scientific compute", 15 ], [ "Power support", 4 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 8, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab tools and services anchor" }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Clinical genomics and MRD" }, { "instrument": "ILMN", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Sequencing data layer" }, { "instrument": "DHR", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science tools" }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI precision medicine data" }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Life-science workflow software" }, { "instrument": "GH", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Liquid biopsy optionality" }, { "instrument": "TXG", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Single-cell/spatial data" }, { "instrument": "QGEN", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Sample prep and bioinformatics" }, { "instrument": "A", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Analytical instruments" }, { "instrument": "IQV", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Clinical/data evidence rail" }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Biotech funding and discovery breadth" }, { "instrument": "XBI", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Equal-weight biotech optionality" }, { "instrument": "MEDP", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "CRO execution" }, { "instrument": "CERT", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Biosimulation option" }, { "instrument": "SDGR", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Computational chemistry option" }, { "instrument": "RXRX", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "AI phenomics option" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Large pharma buyers", "Pure TechBio basket", "Surgical robotics", "Power/grid" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Private AI biology platforms", "Large collaboration headline weights", "Broad pharma majors as AI biology proxy" ], "cases": { "bear": "Lab budgets stay weak, reimbursement tightens, AI capex multiples compress, and TechBio readouts disappoint.", "base": "Tools recover gradually, oncology/genomics testing expands, compute remains funded, and AI biology remains a priority.", "bull": "AI biology produces measurable R&D productivity gains and biology data becomes a strategic bottleneck." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Biotech funding window closes or healthcare reimbursement tightens.", "theme": "AI biology value accrues to pharma customers or private firms rather than tools/data vendors.", "company": "Diagnostics ASP, collections, denial rates, or lab-tool orders deteriorate.", "price": "High-short biology data and TechBio names fail on Q2 evidence.", "timing": "The discovery theme is right but public market revenue conversion takes longer than 3-5 years." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "Hidden factors are long-duration growth, biotech funding, payer/reimbursement, lab budgets, AI compute multiples, and high-short momentum in data/TechBio names.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "S9 is sourceable across biology data, lab execution, computational design, clinical evidence rails, and compute." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "Compute and power rows are not direct AI-biology revenue." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "TechBio and collaboration headlines are proof-building, not broad endorsement." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Q2 filings, reimbursement detail, ASP/collections, cash runway, and biology-specific cloud revenue." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Durable lab-tools route; AI collaboration is not counted as revenue proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Revenue/test-volume evidence, but reimbursement and cash quality decide durability.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ILMN", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "illumina_atlas", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biology data infrastructure, with instrument/reagent cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Bioprocessing/tools recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Enabling compute, not direct biology revenue.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct data/app growth but cash losses and short interest cap confidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Compute/model scaffold; biology-specific revenue not disclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated workflow rail.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Durable lab-tools route; AI collaboration is not counted as revenue proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Revenue/test-volume evidence, but reimbursement and cash quality decide durability.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ILMN", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "illumina_atlas", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biology data infrastructure, with instrument/reagent cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Bioprocessing/tools recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Enabling compute, not direct biology revenue.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct data/app growth but cash losses and short interest cap confidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Compute/model scaffold; biology-specific revenue not disclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated workflow rail.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 19, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Diagnostics/omics", "exposure_weight": 26, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Lab tools", "exposure_weight": 19, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Clinical/evidence software", "exposure_weight": 9, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": 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"nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biotech ETF breadth", "exposure_weight": 8, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Scientific compute", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "XBI", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Used as high-beta funding window proxy; issuer source should be refreshed if traded.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Small power support for compute-heavy scientific discovery.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Raw build overclaimed biology purity and had no cash." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Added 19% cash, capped TechBio to 3%, and labeled compute as scaffold.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-09", "rank": 9, "name": "Robotics And Physical AI", "strategy_label": "Robotics revenue today; humanoid proxy disciplined", "badges": [], "time_horizon": "2-3 years with 3-5 year optionality", "review_cadence": "Monthly; rebalance quarterly; reduce if industrial orders, procedure growth, or edge-semiconductor demand weakens.", "summary": "Separates direct robotics, embedded robotics components, and adjacent AI/power support. The final version removes broad ETF/power overlap from the core, adds cash, caps speculative lidar, and keeps semis as embedded robotics support rather than pretending they are direct robotics revenue.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 5, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 7, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 4, "Robotics": 71, "Cash": 13 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash", 13 ], [ "Surgical robotics", 13 ], [ "Factory/machine vision", 20 ], [ "Motion/components", 20 ], [ "Warehouse automation", 7 ], [ "Edge/robot semis", 18 ], [ "Power support", 7 ], [ "Biology tools", 4 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 87, "ETFs/look-through": 0, "Options premium": 0, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 13 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 13, "largest_single_name": "ISRG at 9%", "top_5_concentration": 34, "options_premium_weight": 0, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "Robotics at 71%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "Speculative lidar and SYM capped at 3% total.", "fit": "Expresses robotics through monetized revenue today, with humanoid upside through suppliers and enabling platforms.", "intentional_breaks": "The portfolio underweights broad robotics ETFs to avoid hidden NVDA/Japan/industrial overlap." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 8.2, "evidence_quality": 6.9, "direct_monetization": 6.8, "valuation_setup_risk": 6, "macro_resilience": 6.8, "liquidity_rebalance": 7.5, "uniqueness": 8.2, "expected_drawdown_control": 6.3 }, "total_score": 6.94, "expected_drawdown_range": "25-40%", "main_upside_driver": "Procedure robotics, factory automation, machine vision, motion components, and edge semis improve as physical AI adoption broadens.", "main_failure_mode": "Robotics stays cyclical and private humanoid winners capture value before public suppliers show robot-specific revenue.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Industrial-cycle reserve", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 9, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Surgical robotics anchor", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct procedure robotics and installed-base economics." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Factory automation controls", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Brownfield factory automation exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Machine vision", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Vision/perception row with industrial-cycle risk." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AME", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Precision components and sensors", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Motion/component quality row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Physical AI compute scaffold", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "nvidia_groot", "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "GR00T/Isaac validate direction, but revenue is still data-center dominated." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ZBRA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Data capture and warehouse automation", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Automation/data capture row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 0, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Not used", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 0, "source_note": { "ids": [], "note": "Not allocated." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ADI", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Analog and sensing semis", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Embedded robotics semis; robot revenue mostly undisclosed." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "PH", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Motion/control components", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Broad industrial motion/control proxy." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "APH", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Connectors and wiring", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Embedded robotics wiring/connectivity proxy." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SYK", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Orthopedic robotics and medtech", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Mako exposure inside broader medtech." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "RRX", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Motors and power transmission", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Motion component proxy." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TXN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Analog/MCU control silicon", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Embedded edge control exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NXPI", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Industrial/auto edge processors", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Embedded edge processor exposure." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power support", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Adjacent power support, not robotics core." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TKR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Bearings and motion components", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Motion component proxy." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "QCOM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Low-power edge AI", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Embedded edge AI; robot revenue not isolated." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "MPWR", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Power management semis", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Power semiconductor proxy for robots/industrial." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Scientific tools ballast", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small science tools ballast." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power support", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Adjacent power support, not robotics core." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Data-center power/cooling support", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Adjacent power support." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Clinical genomics ballast", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Small healthcare growth ballast." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SYM", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Warehouse automation", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 5, "source_note": { "ids": [ "symbotic_q2", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct automation, capped for customer concentration." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "OUST", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Lidar/perception watch", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Speculative perception row capped at 1%." }, "option_note": null } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "Robotics", "theme_weight": 71, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash", 13 ], [ "Surgical robotics", 13 ], [ "Factory/machine vision", 20 ], [ "Motion/components", 20 ], [ "Warehouse automation", 7 ], [ "Edge/robot semis", 18 ], [ "Power support", 7 ], [ "Biology tools", 4 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "ISRG", "weight": 9, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Surgical robotics anchor" }, { "instrument": "ROK", "weight": 8, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Factory automation controls" }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "weight": 7, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Machine vision" }, { "instrument": "AME", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Precision components and sensors" }, { "instrument": "ZBRA", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Data capture and warehouse automation" }, { "instrument": "ADI", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Analog and sensing semis" }, { "instrument": "PH", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Motion/control components" }, { "instrument": "APH", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Connectors and wiring" }, { "instrument": "SYK", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Orthopedic robotics and medtech" }, { "instrument": "RRX", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Motors and power transmission" }, { "instrument": "TXN", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Analog/MCU control silicon" }, { "instrument": "NXPI", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Industrial/auto edge processors" }, { "instrument": "TKR", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Bearings and motion components" }, { "instrument": "QCOM", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Low-power edge AI" }, { "instrument": "MPWR", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power management semis" }, { "instrument": "SYM", "weight": 2, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Warehouse automation" }, { "instrument": "OUST", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lidar/perception watch" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "BOTZ/ROBO broad ETFs", "Pure humanoid OEMs", "Lidar", "Power infrastructure" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "SERV/RR/PDYN/KSCP", "Large HSAI/OUST sleeve", "SMH as robotics proxy" ], "cases": { "bear": "Industrial capex slows, hospital budgets pause, AI capex digests, and private humanoid news fails to produce public revenue.", "base": "Surgical robotics compounds, factory automation improves, and component/edge semiconductor demand broadens.", "bull": "Humanoid and physical-AI pilots validate demand for motion, sensing, edge compute, and automation suppliers." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Industrial recession and higher rates hit capex-sensitive robotics names.", "theme": "Humanoid and physical AI remain in demos, not paid deployments.", "company": "SYM customer concentration, ISRG/SYK procedure growth, or ROK/CGNX order trends deteriorate.", "price": "Robotics leaders fail to hold up while semis and industrials roll over.", "timing": "Private robotics winners capture value before public suppliers disclose material revenue." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "Hidden factors include industrial capex, hospital capex, long-duration multiples, AI capex, semiconductor cycle, venture-backed robotics sentiment, China/Taiwan, and customer concentration.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "Direct robotics exists in ISRG, SYK, SYM, CGNX and related automation rows." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "Semis and power names are not proof of robotics revenue by themselves." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Many embedded robotics rows do not disclose robot-specific revenue." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Robot units, uptime, payback, ASP, service margin, and customer renewal evidence." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "weight": 9, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct procedure robotics and installed-base economics.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Brownfield factory automation exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Vision/perception row with industrial-cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AME", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion/component quality row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "nvidia_groot", "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "GR00T/Isaac validate direction, but revenue is still data-center dominated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ZBRA", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Automation/data capture row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ADI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics semis; robot revenue mostly undisclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Broad industrial motion/control proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "APH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics wiring/connectivity proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SYK", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Mako exposure inside broader medtech.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "RRX", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion component proxy.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "weight": 9, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct procedure robotics and installed-base economics.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Brownfield factory automation exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Vision/perception row with industrial-cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AME", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion/component quality row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "nvidia_groot", "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "GR00T/Isaac validate direction, but revenue is still data-center dominated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ZBRA", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Automation/data capture row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ADI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics semis; robot revenue mostly undisclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Broad industrial motion/control proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "APH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics wiring/connectivity proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SYK", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Mako exposure inside broader medtech.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "RRX", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion component proxy.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 13, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Surgical robotics", "exposure_weight": 13, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Factory/machine vision", "exposure_weight": 20, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Motion/components", "exposure_weight": 20, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Warehouse automation", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Edge/robot semis", "exposure_weight": 18, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Power support", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Raw build overstated robotics purity and was too semiconductor/power-heavy." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Removed broad ETF core, added cash, capped semis and speculative lidar.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-10", "rank": 10, "name": "Options-Enhanced Defined-Risk", "strategy_label": "Capped premium overlay; no hidden leverage", "badges": [], "time_horizon": "18-24 months", "review_cadence": "Monthly; option sleeve reviewed around earnings/capex/order events; roll when time to expiry falls below 9 months.", "summary": "Uses a common-stock/ETF core plus a 3% maximum option premium-at-risk sleeve. Options are candidate structures until live OPRA quotes, open interest, IV, and spreads are checked.", "theme_exposure": { "AI capex/data centers": 34.5, "Power/grid/BTM/BESS": 24.5, "AI biology/scientific discovery": 13, "Robotics": 7, "Cash": 21 }, "node_exposure": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "vehicle_mix": { "Direct stocks": 19, "ETFs/look-through": 57, "Options premium": 3, "Levered ETFs": 0, "Cash": 21 }, "constraints": { "cash_weight": 21, "largest_single_name": "ETF row SMH/GRID at 14%; direct single name GEV at 5%", "top_5_concentration": 53, "options_premium_weight": 3, "levered_etf_weight": 0, "highest_theme_weight": "AI capex/data centers at 34.5%", "max_risk_tier_exposure": "Options premium capped at 3%; single-name option premium capped at 0.5% in this model.", "fit": "For defined premium-at-risk upside after large runs in AI and power names.", "intentional_breaks": "Uses options despite no live chain check, but labels all option rows candidate-only and assumes 100% premium loss." }, "scores": { "thematic_upside": 7.8, "evidence_quality": 6, "direct_monetization": 6.2, "valuation_setup_risk": 7.2, "macro_resilience": 7.1, "liquidity_rebalance": 8.2, "uniqueness": 7, "expected_drawdown_control": 7.8 }, "total_score": 6.9, "expected_drawdown_range": "20-35%", "main_upside_driver": "Core AI/power ETFs participate while small Jan 2028 call spreads add capped upside if semis and grid orders continue.", "main_failure_mode": "The options expire worthless or lose premium to IV decay while the common/ETF core also draws down.", "allocation_sum": 100, "target_allocation": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "asset_type": "Cash/T-bill ETF", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "role": "Collateral and dry powder", "risk_tier": "Low", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "QQQM", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 12, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Mega-cap AI beta", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "note": "Broad platform ETF row; issuer details should be refreshed before trading." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 14, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Core liquid compute exposure", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "Semiconductor ETF wrapper." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 14, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Grid/electrification basket", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Grid ETF wrapper." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "role": "Physical AI and automation sleeve", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Biotech discovery basket", "risk_tier": "Medium-high", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "note": "Biotech ETF row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "asset_type": "ETF", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Medtech/procedure automation", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 6, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "note": "Medical devices ETF row." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Direct power/grid anchor", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct power anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power/cooling deployment", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Power/cooling anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom AI silicon common sleeve", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Common stock plus small option candidate below." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Small direct accelerator leader", "risk_tier": "High", "evidence_score": 8, "source_note": { "ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Direct compute anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "asset_type": "Common stock", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "role": "Lab tools anchor", "risk_tier": "Medium", "evidence_score": 7, "source_note": { "ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "note": "Scientific tools anchor." }, "option_note": null }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "asset_type": "Call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Capped upside on AI semis", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked." }, "option_note": { "underlying": "SMH", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy roughly 10-15% OTM call; sell roughly 45-60% OTM call", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "asset_type": "Call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Capped upside on grid orders", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked." }, "option_note": { "underlying": "GRID", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy ATM to 10% OTM; sell 35-50% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "AVGO Jan 2028 LEAPS call", "asset_type": "LEAPS call", "weight": 0.5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "role": "Custom-silicon convexity", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "avgo_q2" ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked." }, "option_note": { "underlying": "AVGO", "structure": "Long call", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Roughly 15-25% OTM, 0.45-0.55 delta target before live quote check", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 0.5% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GEV/VRT Jan 2028 call-spread basket", "asset_type": "Call spread basket", "weight": 0.5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "role": "Power/cooling convexity", "risk_tier": "Very high", "evidence_score": 4, "source_note": { "ids": [ "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "note": "Candidate only; split premium between GEV and VRT after live quote check." }, "option_note": { "underlying": "GEV/VRT", "structure": "Split debit call spreads", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy 10-15% OTM; sell 45-60% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 0.5% NAV" } } ], "theme_node_instrument_map": [ { "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "theme_weight": 34.5, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Mega-cap AI beta" }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 14, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Core liquid compute exposure" }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Custom AI silicon common sleeve" }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Small direct accelerator leader" }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Call spread", "role": "Capped upside on AI semis" }, { "instrument": "AVGO Jan 2028 LEAPS call", "weight": 0.5, "asset_type": "LEAPS call", "role": "Custom-silicon convexity" } ] }, { "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "theme_weight": 24.5, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 14, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Grid/electrification basket" }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Direct power/grid anchor" }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Power/cooling deployment" }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "asset_type": "Call spread", "role": "Capped upside on grid orders" }, { "instrument": "GEV/VRT Jan 2028 call-spread basket", "weight": 0.5, "asset_type": "Call spread basket", "role": "Power/cooling convexity" } ] }, { "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "theme_weight": 13, "selected_nodes_prior": [ [ "Cash/collateral", 21 ], [ "AI platforms/semis", 34.5 ], [ "Grid/power", 24.5 ], [ "Biotech/medtech/tools", 13 ], [ "Robotics", 7 ] ], "instruments": [ { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Biotech discovery basket" }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "asset_type": "ETF", "role": "Medtech/procedure automation" }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 3, "asset_type": "Common stock", "role": "Lab tools anchor" } ] } ], "selected_nodes": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "underweighted_nodes": [ "Single-name option concentration", "Short-dated calls", "Levered ETFs" ], "rejected_nodes": [ "Far OTM calls", "Naked short options", "Rolling losing calls without evidence", "Options layered on full common positions" ], "cases": { "bear": "AI capex pauses, power projects slip, and options expire worthless while ETFs draw down.", "base": "Core ETFs carry the book while options add small, event-timed upside if semis/grid recover.", "bull": "Semis and grid orders accelerate through 2027, and capped spreads add premium-efficient upside." }, "what_would_make_wrong": { "macro": "Rates rise and implied volatility is expensive at entry.", "theme": "AI capex and grid orders flatten before option windows capture the evidence.", "company": "NVDA/AVGO/GEV/VRT guidance does not clear elevated expectations.", "price": "Underlying ETFs move sideways while IV crush erodes premium.", "timing": "The thesis is right but occurs after Jan 2028 expiry." }, "correlation_and_duplication_note": "Options, SMH, QQQM, NVDA, AVGO, GRID, GEV, and VRT all retain the same AI/power factor. Premium is capped, but total portfolio drawdown can still be large.", "source_claims_accepted": [ "Listed options can be used as candidate defined-risk structures if premium is the risk measure." ], "source_claims_rejected": [ "No option row is trade-ready without live OPRA quotes." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "ETF rows need issuer data; option rows lack live bid/ask/OI/IV/greeks." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "OPRA quote timestamp, strikes, volume, OI, IV, delta, breakeven, max gain, and liquidity." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform ETF row; issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 14, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Semiconductor ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 14, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Grid ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific 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"https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "ishares_sgov", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform ETF row; issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 14, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Semiconductor ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 14, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Grid ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "SMH", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy roughly 10-15% OTM call; sell roughly 45-60% OTM call", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "GRID", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy ATM to 10% OTM; sell 35-50% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "SMH", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy roughly 10-15% OTM call; sell roughly 45-60% OTM call", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "GRID", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy ATM to 10% OTM; sell 35-50% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "AVGO Jan 2028 LEAPS call", "weight": 0.5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "AVGO", "structure": "Long call", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Roughly 15-25% OTM, 0.45-0.55 delta target before live quote check", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 0.5% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GEV/VRT Jan 2028 call-spread basket", "weight": 0.5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Candidate only; split premium between GEV and VRT after live quote check.", "option": { "underlying": "GEV/VRT", "structure": "Split debit call spreads", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy 10-15% OTM; sell 45-60% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 0.5% NAV" } } ], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [ "No live OPRA chain checked; strikes, bid/ask, open interest, IV, greeks, delta, breakeven, and max gain require quote-time verification." ], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Raw S6 had 6% option premium, too high for balanced implementation." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Premium was capped at 3% total and all option rows are labeled candidate-only.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ] } ], "source_audit_record": [ { "id": "portfolio-01", "name": "Power-First AI Buildout", "accepted_claims": [ "Physical power/grid bottlenecks have the best local theme support.", "NVDA/AVGO/ANET support the AI-demand proof layer." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Power scarcity is not automatically bullish for every supplier; backlog must convert to margin and cash." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Many power lanes are May/June source runs; current market data is fresher than source prose." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "PPA economics, cancellation terms, utility rate recovery, and full call transcript refreshes." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High-weight power equipment row; evidence needs current backlog, segment margin, and cash conversion.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI rack density needs power and cooling, but row is capped because the setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical equipment and data-center power exposure; source audit requires order quality and margin support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery node ranked above smaller contractors because scale and utility capex conversion are cleaner.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical hardware exposure with less pure AI power torque than GEV/VRT/ETN.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Primary evidence is NVIDIA data-center revenue and guidance; position is capped because AI capex is already a common factor across the book.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom silicon/networking evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Power scarcity exposure. Needs PPA, hedge, and capacity-market terms before higher sizing.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High-weight power equipment row; evidence needs current backlog, segment margin, and cash conversion.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI rack density needs power and cooling, but row is capped because the setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical equipment and data-center power exposure; source audit requires order quality and margin support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery node ranked above smaller contractors because scale and utility capex conversion are cleaner.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Electrical hardware exposure with less pure AI power torque than GEV/VRT/ETN.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 9, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Primary evidence is NVIDIA data-center revenue and guidance; position is capped because AI capex is already a common factor across the book.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor revenue and custom silicon/networking evidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VST", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Power scarcity exposure. Needs PPA, hedge, and capacity-market terms before higher sizing.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Electrical equipment", "exposure_weight": 26, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Grid delivery", "exposure_weight": 9, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Merchant/firm power", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Accelerators/custom silicon", "exposure_weight": 11, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Networking/semicap", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biology rails", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics/automation", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 12, "selected_node_context": [ "Electrical equipment ranked above utilities because it converts power scarcity into orders sooner.", "Grid delivery ranked above broad power-ready campuses because it has clearer utility/data-center construction conversion.", "Merchant power is included but capped because capacity-market and PPA policy can change." ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "lbnl_data_centers", "iea_energy_ai", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "vaneck_smh", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash proxy. SGOV issuer data supports T-bill exposure, duration, spread, and yield; not treated as literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper. Issuer data supports implementation, not company fundamentals.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "S1 mixed core power with adjacent biology/robotics." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Biology and robotics were capped and treated as adjacent application-layer exposure.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-02", "name": "Downside-Aware High-Risk Barbell", "accepted_claims": [ "SGOV is accepted as cash-like ETF ballast.", "Power/grid, gas/utilities, AI capex, healthcare, and robotics rows have sourceable routes." ], "rejected_claims": [ "SGOV is not literal cash or FDIC-equivalent.", "Utilities and midstream are stabilizers, not true hedges." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "ETF technicals are issuer-backed, not local OHLC-backed." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Detailed Q2 evidence and ETF local OHLC." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 22, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "SGOV is a Treasury ETF, not literal cash; issuer data supports liquidity and duration.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped high-conviction power row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale equipment exposure with less single-project risk than smaller suppliers.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Gas deliverability ballast, not a pure hedge.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer source supports wrapper. Evidence score capped because ETF look-through is not company proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, but capped for concentration and valuation risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor and custom silicon exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cloud and RPO evidence; 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confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cloud platforms", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "SGOV reserve", "Power equipment and grid delivery", "Midstream and utilities", "Capped AI semis/cloud", "Healthcare and robotics ballast" ], "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov", "local_power_theme", "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; 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confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics/automation", "exposure_weight": 8, "selected_node_context": [ "SGOV reserve", "Power equipment and grid delivery", "Midstream and utilities", "Capped AI semis/cloud", "Healthcare and robotics ballast" ], "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov", "local_power_theme", "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "local_robotics_theme", "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 22, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "SGOV is a Treasury ETF, not literal cash; issuer data supports liquidity and duration.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer source supports wrapper. Evidence score capped because ETF look-through is not company proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 3, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Issuer methodology and holdings support grid exposure; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 3, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Could duplicate S3/S5 unless its role is explicit." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Preserved a larger cash reserve and more midstream/utility ballast than S3 or S5.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-03", "name": "Quality Cash-Flow Compounder", "accepted_claims": [ "High-quality platforms and power rows have better source support than small speculative names." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Quality label does not eliminate valuation risk." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Healthcare tools need Q2 organic demand proof." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Latest call transcripts and ETF local OHLC." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 16, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like ETF ballast.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 9, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cloud/RPO evidence; AI capex return remains the proof burden.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scaled platform exposure; AI capex monetization must be watched.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AMZN", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AWS demand and capex conversion are the main evidence path.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct AI compute evidence, capped below S2.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "AI semiconductor and infrastructure software exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct physical power exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scaled data-center power route.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High-beta but sourceable cooling/power exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Utility/data-center EPC route.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High-quality lab infrastructure route.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 16, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like ETF ballast.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "MSFT", "weight": 9, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house 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Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Could become closet QQQ/XLU if platform and utility rows dominate." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised direct power/grid and capped SMH; preserved cash.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-04", "name": "Power Equipment And Grid Delivery Pure", "accepted_claims": [ "Power-pure value chain is sourceable through equipment, grid delivery, utilities, merchant power, and gas inputs." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Broad power-pure equal weighting was rejected; smaller parabolic names were capped." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Several equipment lanes are stale and need transcript refresh." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Utility rate-case orders, merchant PPA economics, backlog margin terms." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 8, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale and diversification rank above smaller equipment names.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery row with scale.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale utility hardware exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped despite strong theme fit because price has rerated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Preferred gas input row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Utility capex recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETR", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated load-growth row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid/data-center execution row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Firm capacity exposure; PPA/regulatory terms matter.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Kept smaller than S1 due extension.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Secondary gas input row.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETN", "weight": 8, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "eaton_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale and diversification rank above smaller equipment names.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 7, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery row with scale.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "HUBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Scale utility hardware exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 6, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Capped despite strong theme fit because price has rerated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "WMB", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Preferred gas input row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AEP", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Utility capex recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ETR", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated load-growth row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid/data-center execution row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CEG", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Firm capacity exposure; PPA/regulatory terms matter.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Kept smaller than S1 due extension.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "KMI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Secondary gas input row.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Scale electrical equipment", "exposure_weight": 28, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Grid delivery", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Scale electrical platforms", "Grid delivery", "Gas inputs", "Regulated recovery", "Selective firm/merchant power" ], "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "power_grid_paper", "iea_energy_ai", "lbnl_data_centers", "gev_ir", "eaton_ir", "vertiv_ir", "ft_grid", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "power_grid_paper", "label": "Local power-grid paper: behind-the-meter data-center buildout", "path": "papers/power-grid/US%20Grid%20Constraints_%20Towards%2040GW+%20of%20Behind-The-Meter%20Datacenter%20by%202028_.md", "type": "in-house paper", "as_of": "2026-06-25" }, { "id": "iea_energy_ai", "label": "IEA Energy and AI report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "lbnl_data_centers", "label": "LBNL U.S. data center electricity demand study", "url": "https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/2024-united-states-data-center-energy", "type": "external research", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": 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"instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 12, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash-like reserve for staged entries.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "ETF grid exposure with issuer support.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 1, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": 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"Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Servers/EMS", "exposure_weight": 6, "selected_node_context": [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", "Foundry/semicap", "Memory", "Networking", "Servers/EMS", "Power/cooling/grid" ], "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "vertiv_ir", "eaton_ir", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": 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"Power/cooling/grid", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", "Foundry/semicap", "Memory", "Networking", "Servers/EMS", "Power/cooling/grid" ], "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "vertiv_ir", "eaton_ir", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cloud demand", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", "Foundry/semicap", "Memory", "Networking", "Servers/EMS", "Power/cooling/grid" ], "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "vertiv_ir", "eaton_ir", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Accelerators/custom silicon", "Foundry/semicap", "Memory", "Networking", "Servers/EMS", "Power/cooling/grid" ], "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "local_ai_theme", "local_power_theme", "vertiv_ir", "eaton_ir", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 15, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because many AI-capex names are extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 2, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Small robotics diversifier.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Too much duplicated supplier beta in raw build." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised cash and avoided a large ETF overlay on top of single-name semis.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "eaton_ir", "label": "Eaton investor relations", "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/investor-relations.html", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-06", "name": "ETF/Liquid Implementation", "accepted_claims": [ "ETF wrappers are liquid and sourceable through issuer pages." ], "rejected_claims": [ "ETF rows do not prove constituent fundamentals." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Local ETF OHLC is missing for key rows." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Current downloadable holdings/prospectus packages for every ETF row." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "SMH semis", "exposure_weight": 20, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "QQQ platforms", "exposure_weight": 10, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "GRID/electrical", "exposure_weight": 22, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Power anchors", "exposure_weight": 6, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biology/medtech ETFs", "exposure_weight": 14, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics ETF", "exposure_weight": 8, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 18, "selected_node_context": [ "SMH semis", "GRID smart grid", "BOTZ robotics", "IBB/IHI biology and medtech", "SGOV liquidity" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 18, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "T-bill ETF reserve; not literal cash.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 20, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Issuer data supports holdings and concentration; no local ETF OHLC.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQ", "weight": 10, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform sleeve. Current issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 22, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Primary ETF power wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF with mixed purity and global/FX exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF; biology exposure but not direct AI proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF; includes procedure and instrument exposure.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Loose S5 was too SMH/QQQ-heavy and under-cashed." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised SGOV to 18%, made GRID real, and capped direct single-name anchors.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-07", "name": "Aggressive Picks-And-Shovels Reset", "accepted_claims": [ "The raw S4 spine has source-backed rows in power/grid, interconnect, memory, and automation." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Raw single-name SMID concentration was rejected." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Many high-beta rows have gap risk, short interest, or customer concentration." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Fresh filings and margin/cash conversion for smaller names." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 25, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High reserve is intentional because the SMID setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 16, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper used to avoid overloading CRDO/ALAB/MU/WDC individually.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 15, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Power wrapper used to avoid overloading POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PWR", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Grid delivery anchor.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "EME", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Execution anchor.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 25, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "High reserve is intentional because the SMID setup is extended.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 16, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck 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"source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "ETF wrapper used to avoid overloading CRDO/ALAB/MU/WDC individually.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 15, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Power wrapper used to avoid overloading POWL/FIX/MYRG/AGX.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Expected drawdown exceeded risk tolerance in raw build." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Raised cash to 25%, wrapper-wrapped major nodes, and capped speculative rows.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-08", "name": "AI Biology Discovery Stack", "accepted_claims": [ "S9 is sourceable across biology data, lab execution, computational design, clinical evidence rails, and compute." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Compute and power rows are not direct AI-biology revenue." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "TechBio and collaboration headlines are proof-building, not broad endorsement." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Q2 filings, reimbursement detail, ASP/collections, cash runway, and biology-specific cloud revenue." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Durable lab-tools route; AI collaboration is not counted as revenue proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Revenue/test-volume evidence, but reimbursement and cash quality decide durability.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ILMN", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "illumina_atlas", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biology data infrastructure, with instrument/reagent cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Bioprocessing/tools recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Enabling compute, not direct biology revenue.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct data/app growth but cash losses and short interest cap confidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Compute/model scaffold; biology-specific revenue not disclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated workflow rail.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TMO", "weight": 8, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "thermo_nvidia", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Durable lab-tools route; AI collaboration is not counted as revenue proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NTRA", "weight": 7, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "natera_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Revenue/test-volume evidence, but reimbursement and cash quality decide durability.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ILMN", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "illumina_atlas", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biology data infrastructure, with instrument/reagent cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "DHR", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Bioprocessing/tools recovery proof needed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Enabling compute, not direct biology revenue.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "TEM", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "tempus_q1", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct data/app growth but cash losses and short interest cap confidence.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GOOGL", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme", "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Compute/model scaffold; biology-specific revenue not disclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VEEV", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Regulated workflow rail.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 19, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Diagnostics/omics", "exposure_weight": 26, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Lab tools", "exposure_weight": 19, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Clinical/evidence software", "exposure_weight": 9, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biotech ETF breadth", "exposure_weight": 8, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Scientific compute", "exposure_weight": 15, "selected_node_context": [ "Diagnostics/omics", "Lab tools", "Clinical evidence rails", "Scientific compute scaffold", "Small TechBio optionals" ], "source_ids": [ "local_biology_theme", "thermo_nvidia", "natera_q1", "tempus_q1", "illumina_atlas", "fda_ai_guidance", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "msft_q3", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 19, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash held because Q2 proof is not yet in for many biology rows.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF, not direct AI-biology proof.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "XBI", "weight": 3, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 5, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Used as high-beta funding window proxy; issuer source should be refreshed if traded.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 2, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Small power support for compute-heavy scientific discovery.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Raw build overclaimed biology purity and had no cash." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Added 19% cash, capped TechBio to 3%, and labeled compute as scaffold.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_biology_theme", "label": "Local AI biology theme page", "path": "themes/ai-enabled-biology-and-scientific-discovery/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-13" }, { "id": "thermo_nvidia", "label": "Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA strategic collaboration", "url": "https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-With-NVIDIA-to-Advance-Science/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-12" }, { "id": "natera_q1", "label": "Natera Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://www.natera.com/company/news/natera-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results/", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-07" }, { "id": "tempus_q1", "label": "Tempus Q1 2026 results", "url": "https://investors.tempus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tempus-reports-first-quarter-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-06" }, { "id": "illumina_atlas", "label": "Illumina Billion Cell Atlas announcement", "url": "https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2026/Illumina-introduces-Billion-Cell-Atlas-to-accelerate-AI-and-drug-discovery/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-01-13" }, { "id": "fda_ai_guidance", "label": "FDA draft AI guidance for drug and biologic regulatory decisions", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/considerations-use-artificial-intelligence-support-regulatory-decision-making-drug-and-biological", "type": "regulatory", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "msft_q3", "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-09", "name": "Robotics And Physical AI", "accepted_claims": [ "Direct robotics exists in ISRG, SYK, SYM, CGNX and related automation rows." ], "rejected_claims": [ "Semis and power names are not proof of robotics revenue by themselves." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "Many embedded robotics rows do not disclose robot-specific revenue." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "Robot units, uptime, payback, ASP, service margin, and customer renewal evidence." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "weight": 9, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct procedure robotics and installed-base economics.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Brownfield factory automation exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Vision/perception row with industrial-cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AME", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion/component quality row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "nvidia_groot", "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "GR00T/Isaac validate direction, but revenue is still data-center dominated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ZBRA", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Automation/data capture row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ADI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics semis; robot revenue mostly undisclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Broad industrial motion/control proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "APH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics wiring/connectivity proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SYK", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Mako exposure inside broader medtech.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "RRX", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion component proxy.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ISRG", "weight": 9, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "intuitive_q1", "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct procedure robotics and installed-base economics.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ROK", "weight": 8, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Brownfield factory automation exposure.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "CGNX", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Vision/perception row with industrial-cycle risk.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AME", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion/component quality row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "NVDA", "weight": 5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "nvidia_q1", "nvidia_groot", "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "GR00T/Isaac validate direction, but revenue is still data-center dominated.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ZBRA", "weight": 5, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Automation/data capture row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "ADI", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics semis; robot revenue mostly undisclosed.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "PH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Broad industrial motion/control proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "APH", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Embedded robotics wiring/connectivity proxy.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SYK", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Mako exposure inside broader medtech.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "RRX", "weight": 4, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_humanoid_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Motion component proxy.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Cash", "exposure_weight": 13, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Surgical robotics", "exposure_weight": 13, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Factory/machine vision", "exposure_weight": 20, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Motion/components", "exposure_weight": 20, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Warehouse automation", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Edge/robot semis", "exposure_weight": 18, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Power support", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "Surgical robotics", "Factory automation", "Machine vision", "Motion/components", "Edge semis", "Warehouse automation" ], "source_ids": [ "local_robotics_theme", "local_humanoid_theme", "nvidia_groot", "intuitive_q1", "symbotic_q2", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / cash reserve", "weight": 13, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Cash reserve because robotics and industrial automation are cyclical.", "option": null } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Raw build overstated robotics purity and was too semiconductor/power-heavy." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Removed broad ETF core, added cash, capped semis and speculative lidar.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "local_robotics_theme", "label": "Local robotics theme page", "path": "themes/robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-18" }, { "id": "local_humanoid_theme", "label": "Local humanoid robotics theme page", "path": "themes/humanoid-robotics/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-05" }, { "id": "nvidia_groot", "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N1 robotics release", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-isaac-gr00t-n1-open-humanoid-robot-foundation-model-simulation-frameworks", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-03-18" }, { "id": "intuitive_q1", "label": "Intuitive Surgical Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://isrg.intuitive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-announces-first-quarter-earnings", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-21" }, { "id": "symbotic_q2", "label": "Symbotic Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://ir.symbotic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/symbotic-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-05" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ] }, { "id": "portfolio-10", "name": "Options-Enhanced Defined-Risk", "accepted_claims": [ "Listed options can be used as candidate defined-risk structures if premium is the risk measure." ], "rejected_claims": [ "No option row is trade-ready without live OPRA quotes." ], "weak_stale_or_synthesis_only_evidence": [ "ETF rows need issuer data; option rows lack live bid/ask/OI/IV/greeks." ], "missing_evidence_limiting_confidence": [ "OPRA quote timestamp, strikes, volume, OI, IV, delta, breakeven, max gain, and liquidity." ], "primary_source_support_used_for_high_weight_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform ETF row; issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 14, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Semiconductor ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 14, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Grid ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct power anchor.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Power/cooling anchor.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "AVGO", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2", "local_ai_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Common stock plus small option candidate below.", "option": null } ], "row_level_source_notes_above_3pct": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" } ], "note": "Broad platform ETF row; issuer details should be refreshed before trading.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH", "weight": 14, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Semiconductor ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GRID", "weight": 14, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Grid ETF wrapper.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "BOTZ", "weight": 7, "theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "GEV", "weight": 5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "local_power_theme", "label": "Local power scarcity theme page", "path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Direct power anchor.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "VRT", "weight": 4, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 7, "source_ids": [ "vertiv_ir", "local_power_theme", "discovery_ohlc" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor 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AI capex cycle theme page", "path": "themes/ai-capex-cycle/report.json", "type": "in-house report", "as_of": "2026-06-14" }, { "id": "discovery_ohlc", "label": "Read-only discovery.daily_ohlc", "type": "local market data", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Common stock plus small option candidate below.", "option": null } ], "node_level_source_notes_above_5pct": [ { "node": "Cash/collateral", "exposure_weight": 21, "selected_node_context": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "ishares_sgov", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "AI platforms/semis", "exposure_weight": 34.5, "selected_node_context": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "ishares_sgov", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global 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}, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Grid/power", "exposure_weight": 24.5, "selected_node_context": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "ishares_sgov", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Biotech/medtech/tools", "exposure_weight": 13, "selected_node_context": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "ishares_sgov", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." }, { "node": "Robotics", "exposure_weight": 7, "selected_node_context": [ "ETF core", "Cash collateral", "Semis call spread", "Grid call spread", "Small single-name LEAPS/spreads" ], "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh", "ft_grid", "ishares_sgov", "globalx_botz", "ishares_ibb", "ishares_ihi", "nvidia_q1", "avgo_q2", "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Node exposure above 5% is supported by the portfolio source trail plus row-level allocation sources; confidence is capped where current primary company evidence is missing." } ], "etf_issuer_or_methodology_sources": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "QQQM", "weight": 12, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "local_ai_theme" ], "sources": [ { "id": "local_ai_theme", "label": "Local AI capex cycle 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"theme": "Robotics", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "globalx_botz" ], "sources": [ { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Robotics ETF wrapper with mixed purity.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IBB", "weight": 6, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ibb" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Biotech ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "IHI", "weight": 4, "theme": "AI biology/scientific discovery", "evidence_score": 6, "source_ids": [ "ishares_ihi" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Medical devices ETF row.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "SMH", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy roughly 10-15% OTM call; sell roughly 45-60% OTM call", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "GRID", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy ATM to 10% OTM; sell 35-50% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } } ], "options_and_levered_etf_implementation_evidence_and_gaps": { "option_rows": [ { "instrument": "SGOV / option collateral", "weight": 21, "theme": "Cash", "evidence_score": 8, "source_ids": [ "ishares_sgov" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Collateral reserve is 7x the premium-at-risk sleeve.", "option": null }, { "instrument": "SMH Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "vaneck_smh" ], "sources": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "SMH", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy roughly 10-15% OTM call; sell roughly 45-60% OTM call", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GRID Jan 2028 call spread", "weight": 1, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "ft_grid" ], "sources": [ { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "GRID", "structure": "Debit call spread", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy ATM to 10% OTM; sell 35-50% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 1% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "AVGO Jan 2028 LEAPS call", "weight": 0.5, "theme": "AI capex/data centers", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "avgo_q2" ], "sources": [ { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" } ], "note": "Candidate only; no OPRA chain checked.", "option": { "underlying": "AVGO", "structure": "Long call", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Roughly 15-25% OTM, 0.45-0.55 delta target before live quote check", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 0.5% NAV" } }, { "instrument": "GEV/VRT Jan 2028 call-spread basket", "weight": 0.5, "theme": "Power/grid/BTM/BESS", "evidence_score": 4, "source_ids": [ "gev_ir", "vertiv_ir" ], "sources": [ { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ], "note": "Candidate only; split premium between GEV and VRT after live quote check.", "option": { "underlying": "GEV/VRT", "structure": "Split debit call spreads", "expiry": "Jan 2028", "moneyness": "Buy 10-15% OTM; sell 45-60% OTM", "max_loss": "Premium paid: 0.5% NAV" } } ], "levered_etf_rows": [], "unresolved_gaps": [ "No live OPRA chain checked; strikes, bid/ask, open interest, IV, greeks, delta, breakeven, and max gain require quote-time verification." ], "levered_etf_policy": "No final portfolio holds levered ETFs. Standing levered-ETF archetype was rejected; any tactical overlay would be baseline 0%, max 3% NAV, 5-20 trading days, with issuer daily-reset/path-dependency warnings." }, "source_auditor_objections": [ "Raw S6 had 6% option premium, too high for balanced implementation." ], "main_agent_resolution": "Premium was capped at 3% total and all option rows are labeled candidate-only.", "source_trail": [ { "id": "vaneck_smh", "label": "VanEck SMH issuer page", "url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ft_grid", "label": "First Trust GRID issuer page", "url": "https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=GRID", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-02" }, { "id": "ishares_sgov", "label": "iShares SGOV issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "globalx_botz", "label": "Global X BOTZ issuer page", "url": "https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ibb", "label": "iShares IBB issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/ishares-biotechnology-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "ishares_ihi", "label": "iShares IHI issuer page", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239516/ishares-us-medical-devices-etf", "type": "ETF issuer", "as_of": "2026-07-06" }, { "id": "nvidia_q1", "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 results", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-05-27" }, { "id": "avgo_q2", "label": "Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results", "url": "https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-06-04" }, { "id": "gev_ir", "label": "GE Vernova investor relations and Q1 FY2026 materials", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/investors", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-04-23" }, { "id": "vertiv_ir", "label": "Vertiv investor relations and AI infrastructure materials", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "primary company", "as_of": "2026-07-07" } ] } ] }