{ "report_id": "theme_power_scarcity_and_grid_load", "report_type": "theme_signal", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/index.html", "title": "Power Scarcity And Grid Load", "as_of": "2026-06-21", "generated_at": "2026-06-21T21:42:19-07:00", "categories": [ "Power scarcity", "Grid load", "Utilities", "Industrials", "Energy", "AI infrastructure", "Funding-sensitive infrastructure", "Discovery-backed" ], "links": { "parents": [ "themes_index" ], "related": [ "reports_home", "themes_index", "theme_power_scarcity_node_electrical_equipment_bottlenecks", "theme_power_scarcity_node_merchant_power_capacity_markets", "theme_power_scarcity_node_utilities_grid_recovery", "theme_power_scarcity_node_grid_delivery_services", "theme_power_scarcity_node_cooling_backup_power_quality", "theme_power_scarcity_node_new_power_demand", "theme_power_scarcity_node_fuel_inputs", "theme_power_scarcity_node_power_ready_campuses", "theme_power_scarcity_and_grid_load", "theme_ai_capex_cycle", "theme_funding_dependency_and_duration_tolerance", "theme_energy_input_cost_pass_through", "theme_trade_tariff_sourcing_geography", "risk_market_fragility_amplification", "sector_utilities", "sector_industrials", "sector_energy", "sector_information_technology", "portfolio_index" ], "backlinks": [ "themes_index" ] }, "discovery_sources": [ { "kind": "duckdb_readonly_query", "label": "Theme basket adjusted daily OHLC returns and moving-average context", "query_ref": "discovery:duckdb:daily_ohlc:theme_power_scarcity_basket:2026-05-22" }, { "kind": "duckdb_readonly_query", "label": "Theme basket latest short-volume sample", "query_ref": "discovery:duckdb:short_volume:theme_power_scarcity_basket:2026-05-22" }, { "kind": "duckdb_readonly_query", "label": "Expanded value-chain keyword screen over active discovery instruments", "query_ref": "discovery:duckdb:instruments_daily_ohlc:power_grid_load_value_chain_screen:2026-05-22" }, { "kind": "status", "label": "PWR local coverage", "query_ref": "discovery:status:PWR" }, { "kind": "status", "label": "GEV local coverage", "query_ref": "discovery:status:GEV" }, { "kind": "discovery_cli_status", "label": "HNRG stored coverage", "query_ref": "discovery:status:HNRG:daily_ohlc_through_2026-06-18" }, { "kind": "report_api", "label": "Power scarcity parent node return buckets", "query_ref": "report-api:/api/themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/node-return-buckets?as_of=latest;resolved_as_of:2026-07-02;source_table:reports.daily_security_return_buckets;missing:power-ready-campuses year excludes FRMI short history" }, { "kind": "report_api", "label": "Representative selected-security right-rail chart routes", "query_ref": "report-api:/api/securities/GEV/chart?frequency=daily&window=9m&as_of=latest;/api/securities/FRMI/chart?frequency=daily&window=9m&as_of=latest;resolved_as_of:2026-07-02" }, { "kind": "duckdb_readonly_query", "label": "Paper-led rerank active ticker daily_ohlc coverage check", "query_ref": "discovery:duckdb:daily_ohlc:power_scarcity_rerank_active_tickers:through_2026-07-02" } ], "knowledge_sources": [ "../../../knowledge/wiki/concepts/themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/concepts/themes/ai-capex-cycle.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/concepts/themes/funding-dependency-and-duration-tolerance.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/concepts/themes/energy-input-cost-pass-through.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/concepts/themes/trade-tariff-sourcing-geography.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/concepts/risks/market-fragility-amplification.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/sector/utilities.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/sector/industrials.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/sector/energy.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/sector/information-technology.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/aep.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/aaon.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/agx.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/amzn.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/apld.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/be.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/bwxt.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/carr.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/ccj.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/cifr.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/corz.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/crwv.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/dlr.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/duk.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/eqix.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/eqt.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/ese.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/etn.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/etr.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/exc.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/fcel.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/frmi.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/gev.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/gnrc.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/googl.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/hnrg.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/hubb.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/iesc.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/iren.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/jci.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/kmi.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/leu.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/lng.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/meta.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/mod.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/msft.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/mtz.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/myrg.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/nrg.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/oke.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/orcl.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/powi.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/powl.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/prim.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/pwr.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/so.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/tln.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/tt.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/vrt.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/vst.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/wmb.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/wulf.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/pcg.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/peg.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/cnp.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/lnt.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/wec.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/eme.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/fix.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_profile__agx__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_research__agx__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_profile__hnrg__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_research__hnrg__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_profile__ese__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_research__ese__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_profile__powi__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/raw/sources/security_research__powi__autoresearch_security_profile_06212026_/output.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/cat.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/ceg.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/cmi.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/d.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/dy.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/epd.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/et.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/nbis.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/nee.md", "../../../knowledge/wiki/lanes/security/strl.md" ], "value_chain_screen": { "minimum_daily_bars": 64, "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "groups": [ { "name": "Load creation", "sample_size": 86, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": 3.3, "average_pct": 4.7 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": 15.5, "average_pct": 22.8 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": 44.9, "average_pct": 58.3 } }, { "name": "Regulated network recovery", "sample_size": 63, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": 3.9, "average_pct": 3.7 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": -0.3, "average_pct": 0.3 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": -0.7, "average_pct": 1 } }, { "name": "Power producers and capacity markets", "sample_size": 52, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": 1.8, "average_pct": 0.9 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": 1.1, "average_pct": 9.1 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": 1.1, "average_pct": 9 } }, { "name": "Electrical equipment", "sample_size": 150, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": 2.4, "average_pct": 1.8 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": 0.2, "average_pct": 3.8 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": 3.6, "average_pct": 15 } }, { "name": "Project delivery", "sample_size": 25, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": -1, "average_pct": 0.6 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": 0.8, "average_pct": 5.5 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": 10.4, "average_pct": 20.3 } }, { "name": "Thermal and time-to-power", "sample_size": 101, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": 1.6, "average_pct": 2.4 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": 1.9, "average_pct": 9.8 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": 6.3, "average_pct": 20.3 } }, { "name": "Powered-campus options", "sample_size": 4, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": 3.3, "average_pct": 3.9 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": 22.5, "average_pct": 40 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": -17.7, "average_pct": 25.9 } }, { "name": "Fuel and firm-power inputs", "sample_size": 145, "weekly_5d": { "median_pct": -1.1, "average_pct": -1.4 }, "monthly_20d": { "median_pct": -0.5, "average_pct": -1.5 }, "quarterly_63d": { "median_pct": 4.3, "average_pct": 3.6 } } ], "method": "Parent cards use local report API node-return-buckets. The API reads reports.daily_security_return_buckets for 5/21/63-session windows and discovery.daily_ohlc for 252-session annual returns.", "coverage": { "total_tickers": 48, "week_covered": 48, "month_covered": 48, "quarter_covered": 48, "year_covered": 47, "stale_tickers": [], "missing_tickers": [], "short_history_tickers": [ "FRMI" ] } }, "ticker_basket": [ "AAON", "AEP", "AGX", "AMZN", "APLD", "BE", "BWXT", "CARR", "CAT", "CCJ", "CEG", "CIFR", "CMI", "CNP", "CORZ", "CRWV", "D", "DLR", "DUK", "DY", "EME", "EPD", "EQIX", "EQT", "ESE", "ET", "ETN", "ETR", "EXC", "FCEL", "FIX", "FRMI", "GEV", "GNRC", "GOOGL", "HNRG", "HUBB", "IESC", "IREN", "JCI", "KMI", "LEU", "LNG", "LNT", "META", "MOD", "MSFT", "MTZ", "MYRG", "NBIS", "NEE", "NRG", "OKE", "ORCL", "PCG", "PEG", "POWI", "POWL", "PRIM", "PWR", "SO", "STRL", "TLN", "TT", "VRT", "VST", "WEC", "WMB", "WULF" ], "freshness": { "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "knowledge_reviewed_as_of": "2026-07-04", "node_price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "active_common_stocks": 5274, "filtered_coverage_count": 5008, "node_chart_interval": "weekly", "value_chain_card_count": 8, "node_page_count": 8, "parent_format_reviewed_as_of": "2026-06-21" }, "revision": { "updated_label": "Paper-led rerank from 1GT and SemiAnalysis grid constraints research", "metadata_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/report.json", "version": 6, "metadata_coordinator": true, "metadata_coordinator_as_of": "2026-06-21" }, "value_chain_nodes": [ { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_electrical_equipment_bottlenecks", "title": "Electrical Equipment Bottlenecks", "slug": "electrical-equipment-bottlenecks", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/electrical-equipment-bottlenecks/index.html", "level": "L3 core node", "core_count": 5, "option_count": 0, "watch_count": 2, "chart_count": 7, "role": "Supplies turbines, transformers, switchgear, substations, electrical rooms, busbar, UPS, E-Houses, and data-center power systems.", "description": "Electrical equipment bottlenecks are the hardware layer that lets new grid, industrial, and data-center load become usable power: gas turbines, transformers, switchgear, substations, electrical rooms, busbar, UPS, E-Houses, integrated data-center power systems, utility testing and monitoring instruments, and high-voltage power-conversion components. Buyers include utilities, hyperscalers, colocation operators, industrial project owners, contractors, equipment channels, and OEMs. The node works when orders, RPO, backlog, design wins, and utility monitoring demand ship or convert at acceptable price/cost spread, margin, customer-advance quality, working-capital control, and free cash flow. The current basket read keeps GEV first for scale and Power/Electrification RPO, POWL second for pure switchgear and project exposure, ETN and HUBB for scaled electrical platforms, VRT for data-center power systems with cooling and backup-power overlap, ESE sixth for utility test and monitoring instrumentation, and POWI seventh for power-conversion and gate-driver semiconductors.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_merchant_power_capacity_markets", "title": "Merchant Power And Capacity Markets", "slug": "merchant-power-capacity-markets", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/merchant-power-capacity-markets/index.html", "level": "L3 core node", "core_count": 3, "option_count": 1, "watch_count": 1, "chart_count": 5, "role": "Owns competitive generation, retail load, PPAs, hedges, capacity payments, and demand-response exposure where power scarcity can become free cash flow after fuel, collateral, leverage, and market-rule costs.", "description": "Merchant power and capacity-market companies own generation, sell retail power, or contract firm electricity in competitive power markets. Buyers include retail customers, load-serving entities, grid markets, hyperscalers, and other large power users. Capacity payments compensate available megawatts for reliability, while energy sales, PPAs, hedges, retail margins, demand-response revenue, and bilateral capacity contracts decide how much tight grid supply reaches company cash flow. The current basket read is VST first because its lane has the broadest cash-backed generation, retail, hedge, Meta PPA, Cogentrix, and buyback evidence; TLN second because PJM, Susquehanna, AWS, and Cornerstone create a direct but high-expectation route; NRG third because LS Power, CPower/VPP, retail load, data-center agreements, and TEF projects need FCFbG and deleveraging proof; HNRG fourth because Merom's MISO dispatchable capacity, forward sales, and 12-year capacity agreement fit the node, but weak Q1 Electric EBITDA, approval risk, plant availability, capex, and dilution keep it below the larger merchant platforms.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_cooling_backup_power_quality", "title": "Cooling, Backup, And Power Quality", "slug": "cooling-backup-and-power-quality", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/cooling-backup-and-power-quality/index.html", "level": "L2 route/watch node", "core_count": 6, "option_count": 2, "watch_count": 4, "chart_count": 12, "role": "Routes thermal management, backup generation, UPS, modular power, building systems, onsite power, controls, and power-quality solutions that turn contracted electricity into usable load.", "description": "Cooling, backup, and power quality are the equipment and service layer that turns contracted electricity into usable, reliable load at data centers, commercial buildings, factories, hospitals, telecom sites, and critical facilities. VRT has the broadest direct power and thermal system evidence; AAON and GNRC have focused cooling and backup-power conversion evidence; MOD and JCI add larger cooling and building-systems routes; BE, ETN, FCEL, CARR, and TT remain watch or crossover rows where proof depends on contract quality, margin conversion, and source freshness.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_utilities_grid_recovery", "title": "Utilities And Grid Recovery", "slug": "utilities-and-grid-recovery", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/utilities-and-grid-recovery/index.html", "level": "L3 regulated recovery node", "core_count": 5, "option_count": 3, "watch_count": 4, "chart_count": 12, "role": "Turns large-load growth into regulated generation, transmission, distribution, resiliency, and customer-funded infrastructure.", "description": "Here, electric utilities are regulated local power companies that own the wires, substations, power plants, and customer connections needed to serve homes, businesses, factories, and data centers in a service territory. This page covers the utilities that could benefit from new data-center and industrial load, but only if grid cost recovery works: state regulators must approve who pays for the new generation, transmission, distribution, resiliency, and connection spending; the utility then collects those costs through customer bills, large-customer payments, or special tariffs and earns a regulated profit rate on approved investment. The current basket read is that AEP has the clearest contracted-load evidence; ETR, SO, EXC, and DUK still need regulatory approvals, tariff detail, funding evidence, and technical confirmation before the setup is as clear.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_grid_delivery_services", "title": "Grid Delivery Services", "slug": "grid-delivery-services", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/grid-delivery-services/index.html", "level": "L2 core node", "core_count": 4, "option_count": 4, "watch_count": 2, "chart_count": 10, "role": "Builds transmission, distribution, substations, generation tie-ins, data-center connections, and utility-scale electrical infrastructure.", "description": "Grid delivery services are the contractors and specialty electrical builders that turn utility, data-center, industrial, power-generation, and interconnection demand into transmission lines, distribution upgrades, substations, generation tie-ins, electrical rooms, and site power connections after a buyer funds a defined scope. The business mechanism is backlog and RPO conversion into segment margin, DSO control, operating cash flow, and free cash flow after labor, equipment, materials, capex, and working-capital needs.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_new_power_demand", "title": "New Power Demand", "slug": "new-power-demand", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/new-power-demand/index.html", "level": "L1 demand monitor node", "core_count": 5, "option_count": 2, "watch_count": 2, "chart_count": 9, "role": "Tracks whether AI, cloud, colocation, industrial, and electrification plans are becoming signed, funded, and energizable power load.", "description": "This node covers the demand side of the power-scarcity chain: cloud platforms, AI compute providers, enterprise software clouds, and data-center REITs that request large blocks of electricity for servers, cooling, networking, storage, and customer deployments. The paper-led rerank puts energized or contracted AI capacity first: CRWV, MSFT, ORCL, AMZN, and GOOGL are core; NBIS and META are option-tier; DLR and EQIX stay as landlord watch rows until power, lease, AFFO, and funding evidence confirms per-share conversion.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_fuel_inputs", "title": "Fuel Inputs", "slug": "fuel-inputs", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/fuel-inputs/index.html", "level": "L2 sub-route node", "core_count": 5, "option_count": 4, "watch_count": 1, "chart_count": 10, "role": "Tracks the nuclear fuel, gas, LNG, midstream, and upstream inputs needed to keep firm power reliable.", "description": "Fuel inputs are the fuel-cycle and gas-infrastructure layer that keeps firm power available when data centers, industrial plants, utilities, and power producers need dependable megawatts. The node covers nuclear fuel and enrichment, uranium production and fuel services, LNG liquefaction and export capacity, natural-gas transmission and storage, midstream gathering and processing, and upstream gas supply. The paper-led rerank moves gas deliverability ahead of slower nuclear-fuel routes: WMB, KMI, ET, LNG, and OKE are core because pipelines, storage, feedgas, and LNG cash flow are nearer-term BTM and dispatchable-power routes; EPD, CCJ, LEU, and EQT sit option-tier; BWXT remains watch until nuclear-services evidence is narrower.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" }, { "id": "theme_power_scarcity_node_power_ready_campuses", "title": "Power-Ready Campuses", "slug": "power-ready-campuses", "site_path": "themes/power-scarcity-and-grid-load/nodes/power-ready-campuses/index.html", "level": "L2 watch node", "core_count": 2, "option_count": 4, "watch_count": 2, "chart_count": 8, "role": "Packages land, power access, interconnection, equipment plans, financing, and tenant commitments into deliverable AI/data-center campus capacity.", "description": "Power-ready campuses are large development sites assembled around land, electric service, interconnection work, permits, equipment procurement, site construction, financing, and tenant negotiations. The stack is used by AI and data-center customers that need usable megawatts before the ordinary utility queue, substation buildout, or colocation supply can deliver.", "price_data_as_of": "2026-07-02", "status": "active" } ] }