Cooling, backup, and power quality are the equipment and service layer that turns contracted electricity into usable, reliable load at data centers, commercial buildings, factories, hospitals, telecom sites, and critical facilities. VRT has the broadest direct power and thermal system evidence; AAON and GNRC have focused cooling and backup-power conversion evidence; MOD and JCI add larger cooling and building-systems routes; BE, ETN, FCEL, CARR, and TT remain watch or crossover rows where proof depends on contract quality, margin conversion, and source freshness.
What the stack is: the stack is the site-level reliability package around the electric load: cooling equipment, chillers, air handlers, liquid-cooling systems, backup generation, fuel cells, UPS, switchgear-adjacent power conditioning, building controls, monitoring software, commissioning, maintenance, and service.
What it does: it removes heat, keeps voltage and power quality inside tolerance, bridges outages or grid delays, controls building systems, and keeps critical IT or industrial equipment operating when grid power is constrained or unreliable.
Main pieces: thermal-management units, BASX and Airedale cooling platforms, large-MW generators, solid oxide fuel-cell servers, UPS modules, battery-backed power electronics, controls, sensors, compressors, heat exchangers, service technicians, and project integration teams.
Where it sits: equipment sits inside the data hall, mechanical room, electrical room, rooftop or yard, generator pad, fuel-cell pad, building-management layer, or service workflow behind the meter at the customer site.
How the theme uses it: hyperscalers, colocation customers, industrial operators, and critical buildings can reserve power, but the site becomes revenue-producing only after cooling, backup power, controls, and power-quality systems are ordered, shipped, commissioned, accepted, and serviced.
Terms used later: UPS means uninterruptible power supply; BASX is AAON's data-center thermal-systems platform; C&I means commercial and industrial; NTP means notice to proceed and is weaker than a signed order when it is non-binding; backlog conversion means orders becoming shipped or accepted revenue; service attachment means maintenance and lifecycle support sold with installed equipment.
Report boundary: this node is a tactical report layer. It ranks the current value-chain basket, confirmation triggers, weakening evidence, and chart provenance. Durable research, claim IDs, raw source registries, and sector thesis maintenance stay in the linked knowledge pages. Price and volume context comes from read-only discovery daily_ohlc; static setup thresholds in shared node data remain from 2026-05-22 and are stale versus current local chart data through 2026-07-02.
Current Setup
Time-to-usable-load gatePower demand pays suppliers only when site systems ship, get accepted, and attach service.
Orders and backlog are useful only if thermal, backup-power, controls, and power-quality equipment becomes revenue, margin, operating cash flow, and a broader installed base.
Positive proofVRT, BE, GNRC, CAT, CMI, MOD, and AAON now drive the time-to-power read.
VRT covers the broadest power and thermal stack; BE, GNRC, CAT, and CMI map to onsite or backup power; MOD and AAON cover thermal capacity.
Conversion gateBacklog must become accepted revenue with margin and cash.
Watch service attachment, customer breadth, working capital, capex, warranty cost, installation margin, and cancellation terms.
Primary constraintStatic setup levels lag live discovery data.
Local OHLC now runs through 2026-07-02, while static setup thresholds remain stale.
Demand sourceAI load, C&I, critical sites
Site systemCooling, UPS, backup, controls
ConversionShip, commission, accept
Proof pointMargin, FCF, service
Grid capacity does not become usable load until a data center, factory, hospital, telecom site, or critical building can cool the equipment, protect it from outages, condition the power, control the building, and maintain uptime. This node tests whether power scarcity becomes supplier revenue and service economics through thermal management, backup generation, UPS, onsite power, controls, and power-quality systems rather than only through higher load forecasts.
Local lanes show demand already reaching suppliers. VRT reported Q1 2026 net sales of $2.6495B with strong Americas AI-infrastructure exposure. BE moves up because Oracle and Nebius make fuel-cell BTM demand visible, but accepted-system economics still matter. GNRC reported Q1 2026 net sales of $1.059B, C&I sales of $510.1M, data-center backlog above $700M, and an up-to-$600M non-binding hyperscale NTP. CAT and CMI add engine and backup-generation time-to-power exposure. MOD filed FY2026 net sales of $3.181B, Data Centers product sales around $1.112B, and a more-than-$4B Airedale capacity agreement. AAON remains an important thermal row, while ETN, FCEL, CARR, TT, and JCI are crossover, option, or watch rows. The next positive proof is backlog conversion into accepted revenue, margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, and service attachment.
The setup weakens if order headlines outrun contract quality and cash conversion. GNRC still has to convert a non-binding NTP; BE and FCEL depend on installation margin, service margin, financing, and dilution discipline; CAT and CMI need data-center or backup-power order detail rather than generic machinery beta; MOD, CARR, TT, AAON, and JCI need backlog-to-margin conversion after strong order evidence; and static setup thresholds lag current discovery data. Customer concentration, working-capital drag, capex, warranty cost, supplier shortages, integration costs, and stale shared node-data can dilute the revenue signal. Watch whether backlog becomes accepted revenue with stable margins, free cash flow, and broader customers.
Paper-led rerank uses the 1GT grid-upgrade paper and the SemiAnalysis BTM/grid-headroom paper as prior updates. Local discovery shows active basket tickers with daily_ohlc coverage through 2026-07-02; newly added tickers have right-rail chart routes but no refreshed static setup labels unless already present. Ranking uses source-backed bottleneck exposure and economic-capture evidence first, not recent price performance.
Basket
This basket keeps the paper-led time-to-power rank from the node manifest. Onsite power, backup generation, UPS, power quality, deployment speed, and service conversion rank ahead of pure cooling. The core sleeve is VRT, GNRC, CAT, CMI, MOD, and AAON. BE and FCEL are option rows. ETN, CARR, TT, and JCI are watch rows where broader electrical or building-systems exposure still needs cleaner node-specific proof.
Core full-stack row for data-center power, UPS, thermal systems, controls, integrated infrastructure, and service.
Market cap$130.6B
Next earningsJul 29, 2026 est.
Latest revenue$2.6495B
Role in stack
Vertiv sells critical digital-infrastructure products to hyperscale, AI, HPC, colocation, telecom, and industrial customers. The node route is site power management, UPS, switchgear-adjacent distribution, thermal systems, controls, integrated infrastructure, and lifecycle service.
Revenue mix
Q1 2026 net sales were $2.6495B, with $2.1358B from products and $513.7M from services. Americas sales were $1.8144B, APAC was $513.7M, and EMEA was $321.4M.
Proof burden
FY2026 guidance calls for $13.50B-$14.00B of sales, 22.8%-23.8% adjusted operating margin, and $2.1B-$2.3B adjusted free cash flow. The lane routes proof through orders, backlog visibility, service attachment, working capital, capex returns, and EMEA recovery.
Option row for behind-the-meter fuel-cell power where Oracle and Nebius make data-center demand visible.
Market cap$74.2B
Next earningsJul 30, 2026 est.
Latest revenue$751.1M
Role in stack
Bloom sells solid oxide fuel-cell systems and services to data-center, AI, utility, and commercial customers that need onsite power or faster energization. Economics depend on signed commitments becoming accepted systems with better installation and service margins.
Revenue mix
The local lane frames BE as onsite-power validation rather than a mature cooling or UPS supplier. Oracle and Nebius are the important customer routes, with system acceptance and service economics deciding revenue quality.
Proof burden
The lane cites Oracle up to 2.8GW, an initial 1.2GW contracted or deploying, a Nebius 328MW project, and Q1 revenue growth of 130.4%. The burden is installation margin, service margin, financing terms, share-count control, and customer concentration.
Core backup-power row for large-MW generators, controls, and service at data centers and critical C&I sites.
Market cap$15.9B
Next earningsJul 29, 2026 est.
Latest revenue$1.059B
Role in stack
Generac sells backup-power equipment, large-MW generators, controls, and services to residential, commercial, industrial, telecom, healthcare, utility, and data-center customers. The node route is backup generation for sites that need reliable power while grid delivery or power quality remains constrained.
Revenue mix
The local lane separates Residential Products from Commercial & Industrial. Q1 2026 C&I sales grew 28%, while C&I margin was 13.0% versus Residential margin of 25.1%.
Proof burden
Data-center backlog was above $700M and management disclosed an up-to-$600M non-binding hyperscale NTP. The lane routes proof through signed-order conversion, large-MW capacity, C&I margin, shipments, service, and free cash flow.
Core large-engine and power-generation row for onsite power, backup generation, turbines, and gensets.
Market cap$403.4B
Next earningsLate Jul/Aug 2026
Latest revenue$17.415B
Role in stack
Caterpillar supplies large engines, turbines, gensets, power systems, parts, service, and financing through a dealer network. The node route is onsite and backup-generation equipment for data centers and constrained grids that need power before utility interconnection arrives.
Revenue mix
Q1 2026 sales and revenues were $17.415B. Power & Energy sales were $7.031B, including Power Generation sales of $2.817B, while Construction, Resource Industries, and Financial Products keep the company tied to broader machinery cyclicality.
Proof burden
The CAT lane points to about $62.7B of firm backlog and 41% Power Generation growth. The burden is profitable backlog conversion, durable data-center power demand, tariff and manufacturing-cost handling, dealer-inventory quality, and Cat Financial credit stability.
Core backup and distributed-power row through engines, generators, Power Systems, Distribution, and service.
Market cap$89.2B
Next earningsAug 2026 window
Latest revenue$8.398B
Role in stack
Cummins sells engines, generators, power systems, components, distribution, and service that can support backup, onsite, and time-to-power needs for data centers and other critical loads. Economics route through Power Systems shipments, Distribution service, margin mix, and cash conversion.
Revenue mix
Q1 2026 net sales were $8.398B. Power Systems sales were $1.956B and Distribution sales were $3.116B, while Engine and Components remained exposed to the truck cycle and Accelera remained a loss-making offset.
Proof burden
The CMI lane cites Power Systems sales up 19%, Power Systems EBITDA up 48%, and raised 2026 guidance. The burden is durable data-center backup-power demand, truck-cycle stabilization, margin pass-through, Accelera loss control, and free-cash-flow conversion.
Watch row for scaled power management, electrical distribution, data-center power, and Boyd Thermal adjacency.
Market cap$155.9B
Next earningsAug 4, 2026 est.
Latest revenue$7.451B
Role in stack
Eaton sells power management and electrical distribution products to data centers, grids, buildings, machine OEMs, industrial customers, and aerospace markets. Electrical Americas and Electrical Global are the direct node routes, with Boyd Thermal adding data-center thermal capability.
Revenue mix
Q1 2026 sales were $7.451B. Electrical Americas generated $3.600B, or 48.3% of sales and 54.6% of segment profit; Electrical Global generated $1.945B, Aerospace $1.139B, and Mobility $766M.
Proof burden
Total backlog was about $22.8B, with 68% targeted for delivery within twelve months. The lane routes proof through Electrical Americas margin recovery, Boyd and Ultra integration, free cash flow, debt reduction, and Mobility separation execution.
Core thermal row for data-center cooling capacity, Climate Solutions, Airedale, and serviceable heat-management systems.
Market cap$14.4B
Next earningsJul 29, 2026 est.
Latest revenueFY2026 $3.181B
Role in stack
Modine sells thermal-management and cooling systems to data-center, commercial HVAC, industrial, vehicle, and specialty markets. The node route is data-center cooling capacity and Climate Solutions growth that can convert through sales, margin, customer breadth, and free cash flow.
Revenue mix
The summarized lane exposes FY2026 net sales of $3.181B and Data Centers product sales around $1.112B rather than a clean latest-quarter total. Older lane text also reported Climate Solutions growth and data-center sales growth as the direct node evidence.
Proof burden
The MOD lane routes proof through Data Centers disclosure, Climate Solutions margin, free cash flow, RMT separation, customer breadth, and capacity execution after the Airedale agreement.
Core thermal row through BASX data-center cooling, liquid cooling, air handling, controls, and service.
Market cap$11.4B
Next earningsNot confirmed
Latest revenue$496.9M
Role in stack
AAON sells HVAC and custom thermal systems to data-center, commercial, industrial, education, healthcare, and retrofit customers. The direct node route is BASX data-center thermal systems, liquid cooling, air handling, controls, and service.
Revenue mix
Local security-lane evidence emphasizes the BASX data-center backlog and consolidated AAON results rather than a full segment revenue bridge. Use the linked lane for mix detail before treating this as a full company model.
Proof burden
Q1 2026 sales rose 54.3%, total backlog was $2.129B, BASX backlog was $1.620B, and FY2026 revenue guidance called for 40%-45% growth. The lane routes proof through BASX throughput, gross margin, working capital, capex, revolver use, and customer breadth.
Option-risk row for fuel-cell onsite-power proposals that need signed projects and positive unit economics.
Market cap$725.8M
Next earningsNot confirmed
Latest revenue$30.5M
Role in stack
FuelCell Energy sells fuel-cell platforms and generation projects that could serve onsite power or data-center resilience use cases. This is an option-risk route because economics depend on moving proposals, LOIs, MOUs, or pilots into signed and delivered projects.
Revenue mix
The local lane shows proposal-led data-center optionality rather than current scaled data-center revenue. Product and generation economics are the gating mix items.
Proof burden
Q1 FY2026 revenue was $30.5M, gross loss was $5.9M, product margin was negative 36.1%, generation margin was negative 28.2%, backlog fell 10.8%, and operating cash flow was negative $33.9M.
Watch row for HVAC and cooling-platform exposure with a local lane, but lower direct node proof than the core thermal names.
Market cap$55.5B
Next earningsAug 4, 2026 est.
Latest revenue$5.341B
Role in stack
Carrier gives the basket a broader HVAC and cooling-platform route for commercial buildings, mission-critical facilities, and equipment service. The node economics need clear cooling orders, data-center or mission-critical mix, margin, and cash conversion rather than only broad building-systems demand.
Revenue mix
The CARR lane provides Q1 2026 sales of $5.341B and local discovery coverage. The node sidecar does not allocate a precise data-center percentage, so the row stays watch-tier until the mix evidence is cleaner.
Proof burden
The lane route is source-backed HVAC and cooling exposure. The burden is segment economics, cooling backlog or orders, data-center or mission-critical customer mix, margin stability, and cash conversion.
Watch row for HVAC and thermal-management exposure with a local lane and broad building-systems proof still needed.
Market cap$103.0B
Next earningsJul 29, 2026 est.
Latest revenue$4.969B
Role in stack
Trane gives the basket a scaled HVAC, thermal-management, and building-systems route for commercial and mission-critical sites. The node mechanism is cooling equipment, controls, service, and retrofit demand converting into margin and cash.
Revenue mix
The TT lane provides Q1 2026 revenue of $4.969B and local discovery coverage. The node sidecar does not break out a precise data-center mix, so this remains a watch row rather than a core cooling row.
Proof burden
The lane route is source-backed HVAC and thermal exposure. The burden is data-center or mission-critical order evidence, segment margins, service attachment, commercial backlog conversion, customer breadth, and cash conversion.
Watch row for HVAC, controls, fire, security, automation, and service in mission-critical buildings.
Market cap$85.1B
Next earningsAug 4, 2026 est.
Latest revenue~$6.1B
Role in stack
Johnson Controls sells HVAC, controls, fire, security, building automation, and service to commercial buildings, mission-critical facilities, institutions, and industrial customers. The node route is cooling, controls, and building systems that make high-load sites operable.
Revenue mix
The report metrics cite about $6.1B of Q2 FY2026 sales. Older local lane text showed Q1 FY2026 orders up 39%, backlog of $18.2B, service growth of 9%, and Americas orders up 56%.
Proof burden
The JCI lane routes proof through updated orders, backlog conversion, service growth, service margin, restructuring progress, free cash flow, and data-center or mission-critical mix evidence.
Ticker order and sleeve labels follow node-data.json and report.json: core VRT/GNRC/CAT/CMI/MOD/AAON, option BE/FCEL, and watch ETN/CARR/TT/JCI. Market caps, estimated earnings dates, and latest revenue figures use the node report where present; CAT and CMI card metrics use their local security lanes because the basket metrics sidecar omitted those rows. Rank buttons and metrics strips carry data-chart-ticker for the selected-security right rail.
What Confirms Or Weakens
AreaWhat confirmsWhat weakens or invalidatesWatch next
01Node thesisSite systems become economics
What confirms
Signed orders and backlog convert into shipped, commissioned, or accepted cooling, backup-power, UPS, controls, onsite-power, and power-quality systems with service attachment, margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, and broader customers.
What weakens or invalidates
Demand stays in pilots, non-binding NTPs, LOIs, MOUs, proposal pipelines, or customer headlines while shipments, margins, service, and cash conversion fail to follow.
Watch next
VRT order visibility
AAON BASX conversion
GNRC NTP status
MOD Data Centers segment
02Economics mechanismBacklog becomes margin and cash
What confirms
Revenue growth arrives with gross or segment margin stability, disciplined inventory, controlled capex, service attachment, customer deposits that become deliveries, and free-cash-flow conversion.
What weakens or invalidates
Working capital, capacity ramps, warranty costs, installation losses, revolver use, acquisition debt, warrants, convertibles, or ATM issuance consume the revenue growth.
Watch next
Gross margin
Installation margin
Service margin
Inventory and DSO
FCF
03Customer and contract qualityOrders are binding and broad
What confirms
Backlog and orders broaden across hyperscale, colocation, C&I, mission-critical buildings, utilities, and service channels with deposits, cancellation protection, accepted milestones, or named customer commitments.
What weakens or invalidates
One customer, one site, customer-linked warrants, non-binding awards, unclear cancellation terms, weak customer credit, or undisclosed concentration dominates the evidence.
Watch next
Customer concentration
Contract liabilities
Cancellation language
Customer advances
04Funding and policyCapital does not dilute conversion
What confirms
Companies fund capacity, acquisitions, and working capital without cutting guidance, overusing equity, worsening credit, or relying on adjusted add-backs that obscure cash costs.
What weakens or invalidates
Rate pressure, tariffs, freight, metals, supplier shortages, project financing, warrants, convertibles, or higher interest expense absorb the benefits of AI and critical-site demand.
Watch next
Debt and revolvers
Equity issuance
Tariff pass-through
Capex returns
05Operating and supply constraintSystems can be delivered
What confirms
Capacity additions, component availability, commissioning labor, service crews, and integration programs let suppliers ship on schedule without warranty cost, under-absorption, or margin leakage.
What weakens or invalidates
Supplier shortages, lead-time slippage, customer delays, capacity-ramp inefficiency, integration cost, residential weakness, or EMEA and China pressure offset the data-center and C&I positives.
Watch next
Airedale delivery
BASX throughput
Large-MW generators
Commercial HVAC orders
06Stale conditionRefresh trigger
What confirms
Discovery daily_ohlc remains current, linked security lanes cover the latest company evidence, and shared node-data setup rows are refreshed before setup thresholds are reused.
What weakens or invalidates
A new trading session, earnings release, filing, order update, cancellation, margin warning, financing, share issuance, or guidance change arrives before this page and shared manifests are refreshed.
Nasdaq API endpoints checked on 2026-06-13: /api/analyst/VRT/earnings-date, /api/analyst/AAON/earnings-date, /api/analyst/GNRC/earnings-date, /api/analyst/MOD/earnings-date, /api/analyst/JCI/earnings-date, /api/analyst/BE/earnings-date, /api/analyst/ETN/earnings-date, /api/analyst/FCEL/earnings-date, /api/analyst/CARR/earnings-date, and /api/analyst/TT/earnings-date. Nasdaq states provided dates are Zacks-derived algorithmic estimates based on historical reporting dates.
Estimated next earnings from Nasdaq/Zacks: VRT Jul 29, 2026; GNRC Jul 29, 2026; MOD Jul 29, 2026; JCI Aug 4, 2026; BE Jul 30, 2026; ETN Aug 4, 2026; CARR Aug 4, 2026; TT Jul 29, 2026. AAON and FCEL returned no vendor date and are marked Not confirmed. CAT late July or early August 2026 and CMI around August 2026 are local-lane evidence windows, not Nasdaq-confirmed dates in this report.
Latest-quarter revenue references come from linked security lanes: VRT Q1 2026 net sales $2.6495B; BE Q1 2026 revenue $751.1M; GNRC Q1 2026 net sales $1.059B; CAT Q1 2026 sales and revenues $17.415B; CMI Q1 2026 net sales $8.398B; ETN Q1 2026 sales $7.451B; AAON Q1 2026 sales $496.9M; FCEL Q1 FY2026 revenue $30.5M; CARR Q1 2026 sales $5.341B; TT Q1 2026 revenue $4.969B; JCI Q2 FY2026 sales about $6.1B. MOD's local lane exposes FY2026 net sales of $3.181B and FY2026 Data Centers product sales of about $1.112B rather than a clean quarterly total in the summarized page, so the Basket labels the period.
Discovery And Chart Provenance
Read-only discovery checks used local DuckDB queries against ../discovery/data/discovery.duckdb.
Discovery coverage showed VRT, BE, GNRC, CAT, CMI, ETN, MOD, AAON, FCEL, CARR, TT, and JCI with daily_ohlc through 2026-07-02. Market caps use local instruments.market_cap values.
The selected-security right rail calls the report API route /api/securities/{ticker}/chart?frequency=weekly&window=3y&as_of=latest. It should render weekly OHLC from daily_ohlc using first open, maximum high, minimum low, final close, and summed volume, with a three-year visible horizon, 20-week EMA, 100-week EMA when history supports it, and volume subgraph.
Chart triggers are the Basket rank buttons and metrics strips via data-chart-ticker. The page does not embed legacy chart payloads or full OHLC arrays.
Local static setup labels and thresholds remain from the older node-data package and are stale relative to current local OHLC through 2026-07-02.
Generator And Shared-File Drift
The family is generator-owned by scripts/build_power_scarcity_nodes.py, but that generator still emits visible setup paragraph stacks, table-based Basket sections, old setup tables, and old inline chart metadata. Do not rerun it until it can emit the current card-based format and paper-led ranks.
The parent report, node metadata, and node manifest now carry the paper-led rank. Static setup thresholds remain stale and should be refreshed separately before use as live trading levels.
Known Gaps
Basket card triggers now cover all twelve ranked tickers. Static setup thresholds and the generator remain stale and should be refreshed in a coordinated pass before this node is used as a live trading view.
AAON and FCEL next earnings dates were not confirmed by Nasdaq/Zacks on 2026-06-13. CAT and CMI earnings windows come from local lanes rather than the Nasdaq endpoint list above.
MOD latest-period revenue is period-mismatched in the card because the current security lane emphasizes FY2026 total net sales and Data Centers product sales rather than a clean latest-quarter total in the summarized durable page.
Discovery supports price, volume, weekly OHLC, EMA, market-cap fields, and coverage facts only. It does not support causal price-action claims without filings, releases, contracts, financing updates, or guidance evidence.
Local 13F holdings rows are empty in discovery status for the tickers reviewed, so this page does not make holder-concentration claims.