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Security report / CGNX

CGNX Operating Console

Cognex is working operationally: revenue, margins, free cash flow, and balance-sheet quality have improved. The report tracks the harder question after the rerating: whether Q2 execution, order breadth, gross-margin durability, AI vision adoption, and buyback discipline can justify a premium multiple.

Metadata Knowledge Lane Fallback Chart
Ticker CGNX
Knowledge reviewed 2026-07-04
Links checked 2026-07-05
Chart source Local API
Module 01 / Price

Selected-Security Chart

API required

Loading CGNX daily chart from the local report API.

Loading CGNX chart...

Module 02 / Proof window

Current Company View

Execution test
Next read Q2 must deliver the $280M-$300M revenue guide and 28%-31% adjusted EBITDA margin without looking like timing-driven demand.
Measured base

Q1 2026 revenue was $268.4M, up 24% year over year, with 71.1% gross margin and 22.3% GAAP operating margin.

Main proof issue

The operating recovery is visible; the proof burden is whether it is broad, repeatable, and worth the current multiple.

Valuation context

Local market data through July 2, 2026 showed an $11.0B market cap and roughly 41.5x estimated EV/TTM adjusted EBITDA.

Next evidence

Q2 revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin, gross margin bridge, customer breadth, AI product adoption, share count, SBC, and repurchase price.

Q1 revenue $268.4M Up 24% year over year
Gross margin 71.1% Q1 2026; mix and volume helped
Adj. EBITDA margin 26.9% Q2 guide: 28%-31%
Cash / debt $621.9M / $0 Cash plus investments, no debt
FCF $42M Q1 2026 company-reported free cash flow
Largest customer 15% 2025 revenue concentration
Exposure Map

Business Profile, Segments, And Exposure

CGNX is a focused machine-vision supplier. The one-segment disclosure makes end-market proof more important than headline revenue alone.

Business model

High-margin machine vision

Cognex sells vision systems, sensors, software, ID products, and application-specific solutions into factory automation, logistics, consumer electronics, semiconductor, packaging, automotive, and other industrial markets.

Disclosure map

One reported segment

The company-level recovery is clear, but product-line, customer, geography, and end-market profitability are not separately disclosed enough to prove which pockets are structurally better.

Factory automation and logistics

Core recovery channel.

2025 growth was helped by logistics and consumer electronics, and Q1 2026 was supported by broad end-market strength.

More useful evidence

Order breadth, repeat deployments, backlog quality, and customer timing commentary.

Consumer electronics and China

Mixed growth-quality signal.

Regional procurement shifts and China exposure can make reported growth look stronger or weaker than durable demand.

More useful evidence

Regional revenue, customer concentration, and whether one-time programs explain the growth.

Tariffs and components

Margin offset to watch.

The Q1 release cited favorable mix and volume, with tariffs offsetting some gross-margin improvement.

More useful evidence

Gross-margin bridge, tariff mitigation, component availability, and pricing actions.

AI-enabled vision

Strategic option, not yet proven revenue.

In-Sight 6900 and In-Sight 3900 support the product narrative, but independent adoption and win-rate evidence remain missing.

More useful evidence

Named deployments, revenue contribution, win rates, and margin durability.

Value Driver Board

Relative Value And Value Drivers

The stock has already priced a better operating model, so each driver has to connect to per-share durability.

Revenue recovery
$994.4M to $268.4M Q1

2025 revenue recovered 9%, then Q1 2026 revenue rose 24% year over year.

Next: Q2 guide delivery and order breadth.
Margin model
71.1% gross margin

Volume, mix, and cost discipline need to survive tariffs, incentives, and product mix normalization.

Next: Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin and gross-margin bridge.
Cash conversion
$237M FY2025 FCF

Low capex and strong operating cash flow reduce solvency risk; working capital and buybacks are the watch items.

Next: FCF conversion after the Q2 revenue step-up.
Per-share discipline
$500M added authorization

Repurchases help only if price paid, SBC, and share count preserve per-share value after the rerating.

Next: shares outstanding, remaining authorization, and SBC.
Guidance Tests

Guidance Path And Tests

Q2 is the cleanest near-term test because the guide requires both revenue follow-through and higher adjusted EBITDA margin.

Question
Does Q2 revenue confirm recovery?

Confirm revenue within or above the $280M-$300M guide with broad demand commentary.

Warn if revenue misses guide or management points to customer timing, channel fill, or regional shifts.

Question
Can margin keep stepping up?

Confirm adjusted EBITDA margin inside or above the 28%-31% guide and a stable gross-margin bridge.

Warn if tariffs, incentives, mix, or reinvestment absorb the cost-action benefit.

Question
Is AI vision more than product language?

Confirm named customer wins, adoption metrics, or product revenue tied to new AI platforms.

Warn if In-Sight product commentary remains qualitative while the multiple keeps expanding.

Question
Do buybacks create per-share value?

Confirm repurchases reduce share count or offset SBC without draining strategic flexibility.

Warn if repurchases at elevated prices are offset by awards, SBC, or rising shares outstanding.

Operating Evidence

Operating Evidence And KPIs

These tiles separate strong current operations from the open proof points that still matter after the rerating.

2025 revenue
$994.4M

Recovered 9% from 2024 and reset the base for the 2026 operating leverage test.

Q1 operating margin
22.3%

GAAP operating margin nearly doubled year over year in Q1 2026.

Balance sheet
$621.9M cash and investments

No debt shifts the debate away from funding stress and toward valuation discipline.

Short interest
6.62M shares

About 4.0% of shares outstanding as of June 15, 2026; not enough alone to explain the rerating.

Market tape
+88.4% YTD

Local data through July 2, 2026 showed a sharp expectations reset.

Disclosure gap
One segment

End-market and product-line profitability remain under-specified.

Capital Ledger

Financial Quality And Capital Allocation

Financial quality is a strength. The report tests whether capital returns add per-share value at the new price.

Financial quality

Self-funding strength

2025 operating cash flow was $245.5M and company-reported free cash flow was $237M. Q1 2026 free cash flow was $42M, and the company had no financial debt at April 5, 2026.

Capital allocation

Buybacks need price discipline

The board added $500M to the repurchase authorization in February 2026. Q1 repurchases were $99M and dividends were $14M, so share count, SBC, and price paid should be monitored together.

Position Board

Competitive Position

Cognex has a real specialist edge, but the source set does not prove durable share gains or AI win rates.

What CGNX has

Product depth

Focused machine-vision systems, sensors, software, ID products, and application-specific solutions.

Gross-margin structure

Q1 2026 gross margin of 71.1% supports a differentiated product and mix profile.

Balance-sheet flexibility

No debt and large cash/investments support R&D, acquisitions, and capital returns.

What is not proven

AI adoption

Independent market-share, win-rate, and customer adoption evidence was not captured.

Growth quality

One customer was 15% of 2025 revenue, and timing can distort order and margin signals.

Segment economics

One-segment reporting limits product-line and end-market profitability attribution.

Street View

Ownership, Flows, Valuation, And Street View

Formal consensus and 13F holder context were not sourced in the lane, so the page keeps street view bounded to local tape, official filings, and flow diagnostics.

Local tape

$67.80 close on July 2

Local market data showed CGNX up 88.4% year to date and 106.8% over one year, with 59.2% annualized volatility.

Dashboard use: the stock has already capitalized a durable recovery. Fallback chart
Valuation frame

About 41.5x EV/TTM adjusted EBITDA

Estimated EV was about $10.4B against roughly $250M of estimated TTM adjusted EBITDA.

Dashboard use: repeat execution matters more than balance-sheet quality alone. Metadata valuation trail
Flows

Repurchase support, holder gap

Company repurchases are large and short interest is modest, but institutional holder context is missing.

Dashboard use: monitor share count and future holder data before reading flows as durable support. Knowledge lane
Official filings

SEC filings checked July 5

SEC-hosted filings confirm Q1 results, Q2 guide, 2025 business context, buyback authorization, and stock-plan amendment context.

Dashboard use: official filings anchor this page; no new analyst target data was added. SEC company page
Scenario Board

Scenario Assessment And Sensitivities

All paths start from stronger current operations. The difference is how much repeatability the next evidence proves.

Base

Cognex delivers against Q2 guidance, keeps elevated margins, converts cash, and shows enough demand breadth to sustain the operating recovery.

Upside

Q2 meets or beats guide, AI vision adoption becomes visible, end-market demand is broad, and margin strength looks structural rather than cyclical.

Downside

A guide miss, margin reversion, customer timing, weak AI evidence, poor buyback economics, or high-multiple technology derating resets expectations.

Trigger Stack

Monitoring Triggers

These are business evidence checks. Chart overlays remain in the shared overlay registry, outside this page.

Q2 results

Revenue versus $280M-$300M

Confirm revenue within or above guide with broad demand commentary.

Warn revenue below guide or demand explained by one-time customer timing.

Margin durability

Adjusted EBITDA margin versus 28%-31%

Confirm margin inside guide with gross margin still near Q1 levels.

Warn if gross margin reverts without a temporary explanation.

Growth quality

Broad orders versus concentration

Confirm logistics, factory automation, semiconductor, consumer electronics, and AI vision breadth.

Warn if one customer, China, or regional procurement reversal drives the result.

Per-share discipline

Buybacks versus SBC

Confirm repurchases create visible share-count and per-share value benefit.

Warn if awards, SBC, or high repurchase prices absorb the benefit.

Risk Punch Cards

Risks, Invalidations, And Quality Flags

The major risks are expectation risk, demand cyclicality, cost execution, AI competition, buyback discipline, and disclosure limits.

High expectations
Basis

CGNX rerated sharply and screens at a high EV/TTM adjusted EBITDA multiple.

Warning

Q2 guide miss, weak growth quality, or margin disappointment.

Reduce concern

Clean Q2 delivery with durable margin and broad demand evidence.

Customer cycles
Basis

Factory automation, logistics, consumer electronics, automotive, and China can be lumpy.

Warning

A major customer pause or regional procurement reversal weakens demand breadth.

Reduce concern

Recurring orders across multiple end markets.

Cost execution
Basis

Management targets $35M-$40M of additional annualized cost reductions by end-2026.

Warning

Tariffs, incentive compensation, mix, or reinvestment offset savings.

Reduce concern

Adjusted EBITDA margin follows the Q2 guide without starving product investment.

AI competition
Basis

AI-enabled vision is a credible option, but independent adoption evidence is missing.

Warning

Product launches do not turn into revenue, share, or win-rate proof.

Reduce concern

Named customer wins and visible revenue contribution.

Buyback and SBC
Basis

The repurchase authorization is large after a major price rerating.

Warning

SBC, awards, or high repurchase prices dilute per-share value.

Reduce concern

Share count falls or stays controlled while FCF remains strong.

Disclosure limits
Basis

One-segment reporting limits product, end-market, and geography attribution.

Warning

Valuation rises while granular proof remains unavailable.

Reduce concern

More disclosure on order breadth, customer mix, and AI product contribution.

Diagnostics

Diagnostics, Freshness, And Known Unknowns

Freshness is explicit because this page is a projection of the filed CGNX lane, with official links checked after generation.

Freshness

Stale-source warning retained
Filed lane

Latest CGNX source pair generated July 4, 2026.

Market data

Local daily market data in the lane runs through July 2, 2026.

Official links

SEC filing and release routes checked July 5, 2026.

Known unknowns

Evidence gaps
Transcript coverage

Recent earnings-call transcripts were not directly available in the source set.

Adoption proof

Independent market-share, win-rate, and AI vision deployment evidence remains missing.

Ownership and peers

Local 13F holder context and peer fundamental multiples were not fully sourced.

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