Q1 2026 revenue was $696.6M, processed tests exceeded 1.0M, and oncology tests rose 54.4% year over year.
From Portfolio Manager reports
Security report / NTRA
NTRA Operating Console
Natera has strong cfDNA diagnostics demand, fast oncology MRD growth, and mid-60% gross margin. The console tracks the conversion burden: Q2 results against the raised FY2026 guide, realized ASP and reimbursement, cash collections, operating expense intensity, Foresight contribution, and per-share discipline.
Ticker
NTRA
Knowledge reviewed
2026-06-07
Links checked
2026-06-24
Chart source
Local API
Module 01 / Price
API required
Selected-Security Chart
Loading NTRA daily chart from the local report API.
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Module 02 / Proof window
Conversion test
Current Company View
Next read
Q2 results must validate the $2.74B-$2.82B FY2026 revenue guide while collections and spending quality improve.
Operating loss was $93.5M, R&D plus SG&A was $538.6M, and accounts receivable increased $121.1M.
The lane estimates about $30.8B of equity value and 10.7x EV/FY2026 revenue guide midpoint using the June 5 close.
Q2 revenue, oncology tests, ASP and payer commentary, gross margin, OCF, receivables, Foresight, and legal/regulatory updates.
Q1 revenue
$696.6M
Up 38.8% YoY
Processed tests
1.014M
Up 18.5% YoY
Oncology tests
258.9K
Up 54.4% YoY
Gross margin
64.7%
Inside FY2026 guide
FY2026 revenue guide
$2.74B-$2.82B
Raised after Q1
Cash / debt
$1.088B / $80.3M
March 31, 2026
Trade Plan
Selected Security Trade Plan
Exposure Map
Business Profile, Segments, And Exposure
Revenue depends on test volume, payer coverage, realized ASP, lab cost per test, and the spend needed to expand clinical indications.
Business model
cfDNA diagnostics platform
Natera sells cell-free DNA tests across oncology, women's health, and organ health. The operating model works if high test volume, payer coverage, and lab scale convert into durable cash flow after clinical evidence, commercial spend, and R&D.
Disclosure map
One reportable segment
Public filings do not split revenue, gross margin, operating profit, or cash flow across oncology, women's health, and organ health. Product-line economics stay a source-quality constraint.
Oncology / Signatera
MRD is the lead growth channel.
Q1 oncology tests were 258,900, up 54.4% YoY, and the 2026 ASCO program included 35 studies.
More useful evidence
Ordering growth, payer coverage, guideline uptake, and Signatera cash contribution.
Women's health
The large installed base still matters.
Total processed tests crossed 1.0M in Q1, but public filings do not isolate women's health economics.
More useful evidence
ASP durability, commercial payer behavior, product mix, and volume by test family.
Payer and Medicare
Reimbursement is the main conversion gate.
Traditional Medicare was about 14.8% of Q1 revenue and 14.6% of expected accounts receivable payments.
More useful evidence
Coverage decisions, prior authorization friction, coding changes, recoupment, and AR days.
Foresight Diagnostics
The acquisition adds MRD capability before economics are visible.
Q1 filings recorded $424.5M of total consideration and up to $175.0M of milestone consideration.
More useful evidence
Standalone revenue, reimbursement, margin, milestone progress, and integration cost.
Value Driver Board
Relative Value And Value Drivers
The multiple depends on growth, reimbursement, spend discipline, and cash quality moving together.
Oncology adoption
258.9K tests
Oncology tests grew much faster than total processed tests in Q1.
Next: Q2 oncology volume, ASCO digestion, ordering commentary, and coverage updates.
ASP and reimbursement
Volume plus ASP
Management tied Q1 revenue growth to both volume and average selling price improvements.
Next: payer coverage, coding, prior authorization, Medicare/MolDx, and collection timing.
Gross margin to leverage
64.7% margin
Mid-60s gross margin is useful only if R&D and SG&A grow slower than gross profit.
Next: 64%-66% guide, lab cost per test, headcount, trials, and legal spend.
Cash conversion
$18.0M after capex
Q1 OCF less capex was positive, but receivables and stock compensation keep quality in focus.
Next: OCF, capex, AR days, payer collections, and SBC.
Per-share discipline
143.2M shares
May 1 shares outstanding and Foresight stock consideration make dilution part of the proof burden.
Next: share count, 10b5-1 sales, acquisition milestones, and employee equity grants.
Guidance Tests
Guidance Path And What Changed
Q1 raised the FY2026 revenue guide by $120M at the midpoint. Q2 now needs to prove the raise was not just a strong first-quarter pull-forward.
Does Q2 validate the raised guide?
Confirm revenue, oncology tests, ASP commentary, and FY2026 guidance remain consistent with or above the raised path.
Warn if guidance is cut or Q2/Q3 revenue implies oncology or ASP has slowed below the guide.
Does reimbursement quality hold?
Confirm stable payer coverage, realized ASP, Medicare/MolDx commentary, and controlled receivables.
Warn if a payer, Medicare contractor, or regulator reduces coverage, raises prior authorization friction, or seeks recoupment.
Does margin become cash flow?
Confirm gross margin stays inside the 64%-66% guide while R&D and SG&A grow slower than gross profit.
Warn if operating loss remains wide and receivables keep rising despite revenue growth.
Operating Evidence
Operating Evidence And KPIs
Use these as evidence tiles, not as a substitute for the full knowledge lane.
$693.9M
Nearly all Q1 revenue came from product revenue, so test economics drive the read.
$450.8M
Gross margin reached 64.7% as lab scale and revenue improved.
$538.6M
Operating spend still exceeded gross profit in Q1.
3.78M shares
May 15 short interest was about 2.7% of May 1 shares outstanding.
Capital Ledger
Financial Quality And Capital Allocation
Liquidity buys time. Cash quality, working capital, and acquisition-linked dilution decide whether that time creates per-share value.
Financial quality
Positive but monitored
Natera had $1.088B of cash and restricted cash versus $80.3M of UBS credit-line debt at March 31. Q1 operating cash flow was $40.2M and OCF less capex was about $18.0M, but receivables rose sharply and stock-based compensation remains a quality adjustment.
Capital allocation
Growth-first
Foresight added ultrasensitive MRD capability, but Q1 filings recorded $424.5M of total consideration, 1.128M NTRA shares, $118.4M of fair-value contingent consideration, and up to $175.0M of milestone consideration through 2027.
Position Board
Competitive Position
Natera has evidence scale and commercial scale. The unresolved question is whether those advantages produce durable product-line economics.
What NTRA has
Q1 oncology test growth and 35 ASCO studies support the MRD adoption claim.
FY2026 revenue guidance of $2.74B-$2.82B gives Natera more scale than most molecular diagnostics peers.
More than $1.0B of cash and restricted cash funds clinical evidence, payer work, and commercialization.
What is not proven
No public revenue, gross margin, operating profit, or cash flow by oncology, women's health, and organ health.
Coverage, coding, prior authorization, recoupment, and Medicare/MolDx remain material variables.
No standalone revenue, margin, reimbursement, or cash contribution has been isolated.
Street View
Ownership, Flows, Valuation, And Street Views
Aggregator targets are dated outside views. Use them to gauge expectation dispersion, not as primary company evidence.
Sixteen listed analyst firms
Natera IR lists coverage from Bernstein, BNP Paribas Exane, BTIG, Canaccord, Craig-Hallum, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, Leerink, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, Raymond James, Baird, Stephens, TD Cowen, and UBS.
Dashboard use: coverage breadth, not an endorsement or consensus source. Natera IR analyst coverage$259.05 average target
Checked 2026-06-24: StockAnalysis showed 21 analysts polled by S&P Global, Buy consensus, $193 low, and $300 high.
Dashboard use: target dispersion around a high-expectation growth multiple. StockAnalysis NTRA forecastCanaccord $285, Piper $249, BTIG $270, RBC $275
StockAnalysis listed Canaccord, Piper Sandler, and BTIG actions on 2026-06-23 plus RBC initiation on 2026-06-11.
Dashboard use: post-ASCO and post-Q1 debate remains centered on growth durability and conversion quality. Latest forecasts$257.71 average target
Checked 2026-06-24: MarketBeat showed 21 ratings, Moderate Buy consensus, $172 low, and $300 high.
Dashboard use: second aggregator with a different rating and target methodology. MarketBeat NTRA forecast10.7x EV/FY2026 revenue guide midpoint
The lane records 3.78M shares of short interest on May 15 and sale-skewed Form 4 activity from March 1 through June 3.
Dashboard use: valuation can work if growth converts; it has less room for reimbursement or leverage disappointment. Knowledge lane
Scenario Board
Scenario Assessment And Sensitivities
The scenario spread is about conversion quality, not whether Natera has a real growth platform.
Base
Revenue and oncology adoption keep growing, reimbursement does not materially worsen, gross margin stays in the guided mid-60s range, and cash generation remains positive but monitored.
Upside
Oncology MRD volumes compound above total growth, payer coverage and ASP remain stable or improve, operating expense growth slows, and Foresight adds credible MRD capability without disproportionate dilution.
Downside
Expectations reset if reimbursement weakens, oncology or ASP slows, receivables and cash conversion deteriorate, legal/regulatory costs rise, or Foresight fails to justify consideration.
Trigger Stack
Monitoring Triggers
These are business evidence checks. Chart overlays remain in the shared overlay rules, outside this page.
Q2 results
Revenue and oncology volume versus raised guide
Confirm revenue, oncology tests, ASP commentary, and FY2026 guide remain consistent with or above the Q1 raise.
Warn guidance cut, slower oncology volume, weaker ASP, or gross margin below the 64%-66% guide without a temporary bridge.
Reimbursement
Coverage, coding, and recoupment
Confirm stable coverage, clean payer commentary, and no material recoupment signal.
Warn major payer, Medicare contractor, or regulator changes coverage, coding, payment, or prior authorization.
Cash quality
OCF, AR, and capex
Confirm durable positive operating cash flow with controlled receivables and capex.
Warn repeated negative OCF or rising receivables while revenue still grows.
Operating spend
R&D and SG&A versus gross profit
Confirm operating expense growth decelerates relative to gross profit.
Warn legal costs, trials, commercialization, or headcount keep absorbing the gross-profit gain.
Foresight
MRD contribution versus consideration
Confirm commercialization, reimbursement, or clinical adoption evidence tied to the acquired capability.
Warn milestone burden, amortization, or dilution without visible standalone contribution.
Risk Punch Cards
Risks, Invalidations, And Quality Flags
The main risks are reimbursement, operating leverage, valuation, legal/regulatory outcomes, Foresight, and segment opacity.
Reimbursement
Basis
Coverage, coding, prior authorization, recoupment, and Medicare/MolDx affect realized ASP and cash collection.
Warning
Coverage reduction, payment-policy change, payer recoupment, or rising AR days.
Reduce concern
Stable ASP commentary, better collection quality, and no adverse payer update.
Operating leverage
Basis
Q1 R&D plus SG&A was $538.6M and operating loss was $93.5M.
Warning
Spending keeps growing nearly as fast as revenue and gross profit.
Reduce concern
Operating expense growth decelerates while gross margin stays in the guided range.
Valuation
Basis
The lane estimates 10.7x EV/FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint.
Warning
Any growth, ASP, guidance, reimbursement, or cash-quality disappointment can move the multiple.
Reduce concern
Q2/Q3 evidence supports the raised guide and clean cash conversion.
Legal and regulatory
Basis
Filings disclose IP, testing-performance, billing, reimbursement, marketing, and regulatory matters.
Warning
Injunction, damages, settlement, FDA/LDT implementation friction, or operating restriction.
Reduce concern
No material new legal or regulatory cost in filings and earnings commentary.
Foresight
Basis
Total consideration, contingent consideration, milestone shares, and amortization are material.
Warning
No visible clinical, commercial, reimbursement, or cash contribution by 2027.
Reduce concern
Named milestones, payer evidence, and standalone contribution are disclosed.
Disclosure opacity
Basis
Natera reports one operating segment.
Warning
Oncology narrative drives valuation while product-line economics remain undisclosed.
Reduce concern
Management provides product-level revenue, margin, cash contribution, or richer KPI definitions.
Diagnostics
Diagnostics, Freshness, And Known Unknowns
Freshness is explicit because this page is a projection of a filed source lane, not a research refresh.
Freshness
No stale warning
Source run
Market data
Web check
Latest filed profile generated 2026-06-07T23:02:00Z; research generated 2026-06-07T23:04:00Z.
Lane market snapshot uses local OHLC and market inputs through 2026-06-05.
Official IR, SEC, and street-view aggregator routes checked 2026-06-24.
Known unknowns
Conversion gaps
Segment economics
Transcript and deck detail
Foresight standalone
No public revenue, margin, profit, or cash flow by oncology, women's health, and organ health.
Recent earnings-call Q&A and the latest investor presentation were not fully parsed in the source pass.
No isolated revenue, margin, reimbursement, or cash contribution.
Source Bay
Links And Filings
Human-useful routes to the source lane, raw projections, filings, metadata, and local chart host.
Canonical NTRA knowledge lane
Source-routed company research, claim/evidence map, diagnostics, and known unknowns.
Latest profile projection
Scenario, forecast, trigger, risk, and unknown objects for the report layer.
Latest research projection
Q1 metrics, valuation snapshot, source refs, claim IDs, and evidence IDs.
Natera investor relations
Official IR landing page with company overview, reports, events, SEC filings, and contact information.
Natera IR SEC filings
Company-hosted SEC filings route. Dynamic rows may require browser rendering.
SEC company filings
SEC company browse page for Natera, CIK 1604821.
Latest 10-Q
Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026.
Latest 10-K
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.
2026 proxy
Proxy source for insider/director ownership and governance context.
Latest earnings release
Q1 2026 results release with revenue, test volume, gross margin, cash, and FY2026 guidance.
ASCO 2026 release
Official route for the 35-study oncology evidence program.
Foresight 8-K exhibit
Company-hosted transaction exhibit filed through SEC EDGAR.
StockAnalysis forecast
Dated outside-view target and analyst-action route checked for this report.
Report metadata JSON
Machine provenance, page sections, source trail, chart endpoints, and web freshness notes.
Fallback chart page
Universal security chart route for NTRA when a detailed page is not needed.
Local chart API: supplies the daily 9-month and weekly 5-year NTRA chart views.
Chart overlays: this HTML and JSON do not store page-specific overlay definitions. Shared overlay rules resolve NTRA levels separately if any are defined.