Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.997B, net income attributable to ONEOK was $774M, and diluted EPS was $1.23.
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OKE Operating Console
ONEOK is a scaled midstream integration story with a cash-conversion and balance-sheet proof window. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.997B and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $8.0B-$8.5B. The next test is whether that EBITDA becomes lower leverage and per-share free cash flow after growth capex, dividends, affiliate contributions, and refinancing.
Ticker
OKE
Knowledge reviewed
2026-05-24
Links checked
2026-06-24
Chart source
Local API
Module 01 / Price
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Cash test
Current Company View
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Q2 and Q3 must show that the $8.0B-$8.5B 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide converts into cash and leverage progress.
Q1 operating cash flow was $934M against $864M of capex, $183M of affiliate contributions, and $674M of dividends.
The filed lane used a May 22 close of $94.03, about $59.24B market cap, 4.55% dividend yield, and a roughly 33.3% six-month adjusted-price move.
Segment EBITDA mix, capex cadence, commercial-paper balances, refinancing terms, rating commentary, and signed LNG, power, export, or data-center economics.
Q1 adjusted EBITDA
$1.997B
Up 13% year over year
2026 EBITDA guide
$8.0B-$8.5B
Raised after Q1
Cash stack
$934M / $864M
Q1 CFO / capex
Debt position
$30.764B
LT debt ex-current at 2026-03-31
Segment EBITDA
NGL $706M
Largest Q1 segment contributor
Dividend yield
4.55%
Filed May 22 snapshot
Trade Plan
Selected Security Trade Plan
Exposure Map
Business Profile, Segments, And Exposure
ONEOK is a multi-product midstream operator. Revenue moves with commodity sales, while the investment debate centers on adjusted EBITDA, cash conversion, and leverage.
Business model
Integrated energy infrastructure
ONEOK gathers, processes, fractionates, transports, stores, blends, markets, and exports natural gas, NGLs, refined products, and crude through an approximately 60,000-mile network.
Disclosure map
Four reportable segments
Q1 2026 filings break out Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Refined Products and Crude. EBITDA quality still depends on contract mix, optimization, and basis effects.
Natural Gas Liquids
$706M Q1 adjusted EBITDA.
NGL EBITDA rose 11% year over year, helped by optimization, marketing, and volume-linked exchange services.
More useful evidence
Raw-feed volumes, fractionation economics, exchange-service fees, and Gulf Coast/Permian utilization.
Refined Products And Crude
$492M Q1 adjusted EBITDA.
Adjusted EBITDA improved modestly, but the segment also carried a $60M Powder Springs impairment.
More useful evidence
Product shipments, blending margins, crude marketing, affiliate earnings, and asset-quality updates.
Gathering And Processing
$467M Q1 adjusted EBITDA.
G&P declined because lower realized NGL and natural gas prices outweighed higher volumes and lower costs.
More useful evidence
Processed volumes, producer activity, realized prices, hedging, methane-fee changes, and basin mix.
Natural Gas Pipelines
$339M Q1 adjusted EBITDA.
Pipeline EBITDA rose on optimization, Waha-Katy differentials, firm transportation, and Northern Border affiliate earnings.
More useful evidence
Firm transport revenue, storage utilization, basis spreads, and repeatability after weather and optimization benefits.
Value Driver Board
Relative Value And Value Drivers
The stock is priced for execution. Upside needs EBITDA quality, project conversion, and leverage progress.
Integration synergies
Nearly $500M since Magellan
Management reported nearly $500M of total synergies since Magellan and $250M in 2025.
Next: EnLink, Medallion, and system-integration savings that show up in segment EBITDA and cash.
Project conversion
$2.7B-$3.2B capex guide
Growth spending needs to become contracted volumes, EBITDA, and lower capital intensity.
Next: in-service timing, capex revisions, volume ramp, and cash-flow contribution.
Debt path
$1.6B commercial paper
Financing terms matter because current maturities, short-term borrowings, and long-term debt are large.
Next: commercial-paper balance, credit-facility use, rating commentary, and refinancing spreads.
Demand optionality
>40 counterparties / >5 Bcf/d
Power, data-center, LNG, and export demand helps only when potential demand becomes signed economics.
Next: disclosed capacity, returns, timing, contract term, and expected EBITDA contribution.
Guidance Tests
Guidance Path And What Changed
ONEOK raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance after Q1 while leaving capex guidance unchanged.
Is EBITDA on pace without front-loaded benefits?
Confirm Q2 and Q3 segment results support the $8.0B-$8.5B adjusted EBITDA guide.
Warn if results show Q1 strength was mostly optimization, marketing, weather, or basis-spread benefit.
Does cash conversion improve?
Confirm operating cash flow covers more of capex, dividends, affiliate contributions, and debt service.
Warn if EBITDA delivery still requires heavier commercial paper, refinancing, ATM usage, or project delays.
Does growth become contracted EBITDA?
Confirm power, data-center, LNG, and export opportunities show capacity, returns, timing, and EBITDA.
Warn broad demand language without signed contracts or clear project economics.
Operating Evidence
Operating Evidence And KPIs
These evidence tiles summarize the filed lane and official Q1 release. Use the source lane for the full claim and evidence map.
$9.618B
Consolidated revenue grew from $8.043B in Q1 2025, but EBITDA is the cleaner quality metric.
$774M / $1.23
Net income attributable to ONEOK and diluted EPS in Q1 2026.
$8.25B
Raised adjusted EBITDA midpoint after Q1; capex guide stayed $2.7B-$3.2B.
$864M + $183M + $674M
Capex, affiliate contributions, and dividends exceeded Q1 operating cash flow.
About 90%
Management described 2025 earnings as mostly fee-based, while Q1 segment bridges still showed spread and optimization exposure.
27.2M shares
About 4.3% of shares outstanding at the April 30, 2026 settlement date in the local source pass.
Capital Ledger
Financial Quality And Capital Allocation
Financial quality is usable but constrained by high absolute debt, growth capex, dividends, and refinancing needs.
Financial quality
Adequate liquidity, high debt
At March 31, 2026, ONEOK had $172M of cash, $1.241B of current debt maturities, $1.647B of short-term borrowings, and $30.764B of long-term debt excluding current maturities.
Capital allocation
Projects and dividend before buybacks
The filed lane frames capital allocation around funding projects, maintaining the dividend, and restoring balance-sheet flexibility. Buybacks look secondary until leverage confidence improves.
Position Board
Competitive Position
ONEOK has a real scale edge, but the edge has to survive cash conversion, leverage, and project execution tests.
What ONEOK has
Four reportable segments and an approximately 60,000-mile network across gas, NGLs, refined products, and crude.
Management lifted 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance after Q1 and kept capex guidance unchanged.
No borrowings under the $3.5B credit agreement at March 31 and covenant compliance in the source pass.
What is not proven
Q1 operating cash flow covered maintenance capital but not the full capex, affiliate contribution, and dividend stack.
Q1 included optimization, marketing, Waha-Katy differential, realized-price, and blending drivers.
Power, data-center, LNG, and export demand is not yet disclosed as signed capacity with expected EBITDA.
Street View
Ownership, Flows, Valuation, And Street View
Use market and analyst data as dated context. Primary evidence comes from company releases, SEC filings, and the knowledge lane.
Listed analyst firms
ONEOK's analyst-coverage page is the official route for covering firms. It is a source route, not a rating or price-target source.
Dashboard use: coverage breadth and official routing. ONEOK analyst coverage$94.03 close / $59.24B market cap
The filed lane used May 22 market data with 16.79x P/E, 15.94x forward P/E, 4.55% yield, beta 0.76, and +33.3% six-month local adjusted performance.
Dashboard use: expectation context, not a live quote. Knowledge lane market section27.2M shares short
Local discovery showed about 4.3% of shares outstanding short at April 30, 2026. Recent Form 4 observations were mostly award, vesting, and tax-withholding activity.
Dashboard use: catalyst sensitivity, not a stand-alone thesis. Research source flow sectionAggregator context is dated
StockAnalysis and MarketBeat routes were checked 2026-06-24 for outside-view consensus context. Provider methods can differ, so the page treats them as secondary.
Dashboard use: dated street-view check only. StockAnalysis forecast route
Scenario Board
Scenario Assessment And Sensitivities
The scenario spread is about EBITDA durability, capex-to-cash conversion, signed growth, and refinancing pressure.
Base
ONEOK sustains roughly $8B-plus EBITDA, Q2/Q3 results validate the Q1 guide raise, project spending stays within plan, and debt metrics improve gradually.
Upside
Signed LNG, power, export, or data-center contracts, project completions, synergy capture, and debt reduction prove the enlarged platform can grow FCF per share.
Downside
EBITDA quality weakens, capex or project timing absorbs cash, refinancing becomes more expensive, and the recent re-rating unwinds as leverage reduction is questioned.
Trigger Stack
Monitoring Triggers
These are operating and capital-allocation evidence checks. Chart overlays remain outside this page.
Q2/Q3 results
Guidance pace and segment quality
Confirm adjusted EBITDA and segment detail support the raised 2026 guide without front-loaded spread benefits.
Warn a guide cut below the original February midpoint or evidence that Q1 was mostly temporary.
Funding
Commercial paper, maturities, and rating posture
Confirm commercial paper, credit-facility use, refinancing spreads, and rating commentary remain controlled.
Warn rising short-term borrowings, ATM use, or refinancing pressure without a clear debt-reduction path.
Cash conversion
Capex and dividends after operating cash flow
Confirm operating cash flow, capex, affiliate contributions, and dividends leave room for debt reduction.
Warn capex rises materially, projects slip, affiliate contributions stay elevated, or debt does not decline with EBITDA.
Growth contracts
LNG, power, export, and data-center demand
Confirm signed capacity, return profile, timing, and expected EBITDA contribution.
Warn opportunity language that remains engagement-level without contract economics.
Energy regime
Hormuz, basis, products, and funding stress
Confirm infrastructure conditions support volumes and differentials without demand or funding damage.
Warn prolonged disruption lifts inflation, rates, freight, or demand pressure enough to offset midstream support.
Asset quality
Impairments and affiliate economics
Confirm acquired assets and affiliates contribute cash and segment EBITDA without new write-downs.
Warn further impairments, weaker affiliate distributions, or less useful segment disclosure.
Risk Punch Cards
Risks, Invalidations, And Quality Flags
The risk board focuses on what would weaken the EBITDA-to-cash and deleveraging argument.
Leverage and refinancing
Basis
Large absolute debt, commercial paper usage, near-term maturities, and high capex keep financing central.
Warning
Refinancing spreads widen, rating commentary weakens, ATM use appears, or debt reduction lags EBITDA.
Reduce concern
Debt metrics improve while capex and dividends remain funded from recurring cash flow.
Project and capex execution
Basis
The constructive case depends on growth projects and acquisitions becoming EBITDA and cash.
Warning
Capex overruns, project delays, or weak synergy capture push out per-share cash-flow improvement.
Reduce concern
Projects enter service on time and segment EBITDA turns into debt reduction.
EBITDA quality
Basis
Fee-based economics coexist with optimization, marketing, basis, realized-price, and blending exposure.
Warning
Q2/Q3 shows weaker repeatability after temporary Q1 spread, weather, or optimization benefits.
Reduce concern
Volume, contract, and project evidence drive the guide rather than short-lived market dislocations.
Macro and energy shock
Basis
Energy disruption can support midstream volumes and differentials while also raising inflation and funding stress.
Warning
Demand, freight, rates, or credit pressure offsets the benefit from energy infrastructure utilization.
Reduce concern
Energy conditions normalize or remain supportive without tightening funding conditions.
Adjusted EBITDA quality
Basis
Adjusted EBITDA is useful for midstream comparison, but Q1 included impairment and transaction-cost adjustments.
Warning
Adjusted EBITDA improves while GAAP cash flow, segment returns, or affiliate distributions weaken.
Reduce concern
GAAP cash, adjusted EBITDA, and segment capital returns move together.
Disclosure gaps
Basis
Peer EV/EBITDA, consensus leverage and FCF, rating-agency reports, and signed-demand economics were incomplete upstream.
Warning
Visibility remains broad while the stock is priced for execution.
Reduce concern
Company and credit sources add contract, returns, leverage, and peer-comparison detail.
Diagnostics
Diagnostics, Freshness, And Known Unknowns
Freshness is explicit because this page is a report projection, not a canonical research refresh.
Freshness
No stale-source flag
Source run
Market data
Web check
Latest paired OKE profile and research sources generated 2026-05-24T23:40:44Z.
Lane market snapshot uses the May 22, 2026 close; short interest is from the April 30, 2026 settlement date.
Official IR, SEC, Q1 release, presentations, analyst list, StockAnalysis, and MarketBeat routes checked 2026-06-24.
Known unknowns
Open diligence items
Credit view
Contract economics
Market data
Fresh rating-agency reports and detailed current external credit commentary were not sourced upstream.
Power, data-center, LNG, and export demand is still disclosed mainly as potential demand and counterparty engagement.
Full consensus EBITDA, FCF, leverage, and peer valuation data were not available in the source pair.
Source Bay
Links And Filings
Human-useful routes to the source lane, raw projections, filings, metadata, and local chart host.
Canonical OKE knowledge lane
Source-routed company research, claim/evidence map, diagnostics, and known unknowns.
Latest profile projection
Scenario, forecast, trigger, risk, and unknown objects for the report layer.
Latest research projection
Q1 metrics, valuation snapshot, source refs, claim IDs, and evidence IDs.
ONEOK investor relations
Official IR landing page with releases, presentations, SEC filings, stock links, and investor contacts.
Q1 2026 results release
Company release dated April 28, 2026 for Q1 results, raised guidance, capex guide, and segment drivers.
Q1 2026 presentation
Company presentation route for guidance, project, demand, and financial detail.
June 2026 investor update
Latest investor update shown on the IR page during the 2026-06-24 web check.
ONEOK IR SEC filings
Company-hosted filing list for 10-K, 10-Q, proxy, Form 8-K, and ownership filings.
SEC company filings
SEC company browse page for ONEOK, CIK 1039684.
Latest 10-Q
Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026.
Latest 10-K
Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
Equity analysts
Official ONEOK analyst-coverage route checked 2026-06-24.
StockAnalysis forecast route
Dated outside-view consensus and target route. Provider methodology can differ from other aggregators.
Report metadata JSON
Machine provenance, page sections, source trail, chart endpoints, and web freshness notes.
Fallback chart page
Universal security chart route for OKE when a detailed page is not needed.
Local chart API: supplies the daily 9-month and weekly 5-year OKE chart views.
Chart overlays: this HTML and JSON do not store page-specific overlay definitions. Shared overlay rules resolve OKE levels only if added to the registry separately.