FY2025 revenue fell 15.3% to $5.995B. Q1 2026 revenue was $1.513B with 38.5% gross margin.
From Portfolio Manager reports
Security report / ON
ON Semiconductor Operating Console
ON Semiconductor is a proof-dependent power and sensing semiconductor recovery. The console tracks whether Q1 2026 stabilization converts into durable revenue, GAAP margin, and cash-flow recovery before the stock's rerating and AI data-center optionality outrun the operating proof.
Ticker
ON
Knowledge reviewed
2026-07-04
Market data
2026-07-02
Chart source
Local API
Module 01 / Price
API required
Selected-Security Chart
Loading ON daily chart from the local report API.
Loading ON chart...
Module 02 / Proof window
Proof watch
Current Company View
Next read
Q2 delivery, GAAP margin recovery, AI revenue scale, and cash conversion must catch up with the rerating.
Q1 non-GAAP operating margin was 19.1%, but GAAP operating margin was still -3.5% and operating cash flow fell year over year.
Local data showed a $91.22 close on 2026-07-02, rough EV near $36.3B, and about 6.1x FY2025 revenue.
Q2 2026 revenue guide delivery, auto/industrial order commentary, AI data-center scale disclosure, GAAP margin, and buybacks versus FCF.
FY2025 revenue
$5.995B
Down 15.3% from 2024
Q1 2026 revenue
$1.513B
Exceeded guide midpoint
Q1 gross margin
38.5%
Recovering from 33.1% in FY2025
GAAP / non-GAAP op margin
-3.5% / 19.1%
Adjustment spread remains central
Auto / industrial mix
51% / 28%
FY2025 revenue exposure
Cash / debt
$2.4B / $3.005B
As of April 3, 2026
Trade Plan
Selected Security Trade Plan
Exposure Map
Business Profile, Segments, And Exposure
ON is mostly an auto and industrial power-and-sensing company today. AI data-center power is a useful option, but it is not yet disclosed as a company-defining revenue base.
Business model
Manufacturing-intensive analog and power semiconductors
Products span intelligent power, silicon carbide, analog and mixed signal, and intelligent sensing across automotive, industrial, and AI data-center-adjacent power applications.
Disclosure map
Segment detail helps, end-market economics remain limited
The lane has PSG, AMG, and ISG mix, but AI data-center revenue, margin, customer breadth, and durability are still not quantified.
Automotive
Largest end market at 51% of FY2025 revenue.
EV, ADAS, and power content can compound, but auto demand drove much of the 2025 reset.
More useful evidence
Order, lead-time, distributor inventory, and customer production commentary.
Industrial
Industrial was 28% of FY2025 revenue.
Automation and power demand matter, but the cycle still controls utilization and margin recapture.
More useful evidence
Industrial capex, bookings, segment revenue, and utilization commentary.
Power Solutions Group
PSG was 46.8% of FY2025 revenue.
The segment carries the SiC, power-density, EV, industrial power, and data-center power-tree story, but FY2025 margin fell to 24.5%.
More useful evidence
Factory loading, SiC pricing, mix, and realignment-cost fade.
AMG and ISG
AMG held up better than ISG in 2025.
AMG gross margin was 51.1%, while ISG fell to 15.1% after inventory charges and lower auto/industrial volume.
More useful evidence
Segment margin recovery and whether sensing inventory charges are fading.
AI data-center power
Growth rates are strong, but scale is not disclosed.
Management said Q1 AI data-center revenue more than doubled year over year and grew more than 30% sequentially.
More useful evidence
Absolute revenue, margin contribution, customer breadth, and repeat-order visibility.
Disclosure limit
The current source set is not transcript-complete.
Full last-four-quarter call Q&A, latest investor deck, covenant detail, and full peer valuation data were not available.
More useful evidence
A complete Q&A history and current investor-presentation route.
Value Drivers
Relative Value And Drivers
The stock is not priced like a distressed trough asset. The driver stack has to prove revenue recovery, utilization leverage, AI power scale, and disciplined cash deployment.
Revenue
Auto and industrial recovery
Core demand is the swing factor.
Auto and industrial were 79% of FY2025 revenue, so a recovery needs customer order and utilization evidence beyond AI commentary.
Confirm with Q2/Q3 revenue, segment mix, and end-market order commentary.
Margin
Utilization and realignment savings
Gross margin must normalize in GAAP terms.
FY2025 gross margin compressed to 33.1%; Q1 recovered to 38.5%, but the GAAP operating-margin gap keeps the quality test open.
Watch restructuring, impairment, inventory, and underutilization items.
Optionality
AI data-center power
Rate-based evidence is not enough.
The current evidence proves fast growth from an undisclosed base, not yet material company-wide revenue or margin contribution.
Upside needs absolute revenue, margin, and customer breadth.
Cash
FCF and buyback discipline
Capital return must stay funded by durable cash.
FY2025 cash generation was strong, but Q1 operating cash flow fell to $239.1M and repurchases were about $346M.
Watch buybacks relative to FCF and cash balances.
Guidance
Guidance Path And Tests
Guidance supports recovery, but the guide only matters if it converts into GAAP margin recovery and operating cash flow.
Does Q2 revenue land inside or above the $1.54B-$1.64B guide?
Confirm with revenue delivery and forward commentary that supports continued auto/industrial stabilization.
Warn if Q2 or Q3 guidance falls back below the Q1 2026 run-rate without a temporary explanation.
Does margin recovery show up in GAAP results?
Confirm with gross margin moving toward high-30s or low-40s levels as restructuring and inventory items fade.
Warn if non-GAAP strength stays disconnected from GAAP operating margin.
Does AI power move from growth-rate language to scale?
Confirm with absolute revenue, margin contribution, repeat orders, and customer breadth.
Warn if the company keeps describing AI only by percentages.
Operating Evidence
KPIs And Catalysts
The clean read is a trough recovery with incomplete proof. These KPIs separate revenue stabilization from durable operating leverage.
$5.995B FY2025; $1.513B Q1 2026.
Revenue recovery is the first condition for utilization, margin recapture, and current expectations.
33.1% in FY2025; 38.5% in Q1 2026.
This tests whether underutilization and inventory charges were cyclical or structural.
-3.5% GAAP versus 19.1% non-GAAP operating margin.
A narrowing spread would increase confidence that adjusted margins reflect normalized economics.
$1.760B FY2025 operating cash flow; $239.1M in Q1 2026.
Working-capital timing and buybacks above quarterly FCF make near-term cash quality mixed.
$1.54B-$1.64B revenue guide and $0.65-$0.77 non-GAAP EPS guide.
The next print needs evidence that Q1 stabilization carries into revenue, margin, and cash flow.
Capital
Financial Quality And Capital Allocation
The balance sheet is not the main constraint, but cash conversion and repurchase pacing matter because the recovery is still being proven.
Liquidity and debt
$2.4B cash and short-term investments versus $3.005B gross long-term debt.
As of April 3, 2026, ON also had about $1.5B of revolver availability.
Expected gross debt maturities were $804.9M in 2027, $700.0M in 2028, and $1.5B in 2029.
Cash quality
Annual cash generation is meaningful, but Q1 conversion weakened.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $1.760B and capex was $341M.
Q1 2026 operating cash flow fell from $602.3M a year earlier to $239.1M because of working-capital timing.
Capital return
The 2026-2028 repurchase authorization is up to $6.0B.
Q1 2026 repurchases were about $346M, roughly 160% of quarterly FCF.
That supports per-share economics only if the recovery funds it without balance-sheet drawdown.
Position
Competitive Position
ON has real product-level advantages, but the 2025 reset argues against treating those advantages as company-wide margin protection.
What is proven
ON has differentiated pockets in intelligent power, SiC, packaging, and modules.
Automotive image sensing and intelligent sensing remain strategically relevant.
Q1 2026 commentary showed strong growth rates in AI data-center power products.
What is not proven
PSG and ISG margins compressed sharply in 2025 as volume, utilization, mix, and inventory costs moved against the company.
Absolute AI revenue, margin contribution, customer concentration, and durability remain undisclosed.
The competitive proof point is GAAP margin recapture as demand and utilization improve.
Street View
Ownership, Flows, Valuation, And Tape
Market data in the lane says expectations have already moved. That raises the penalty for vague AI disclosure, margin slippage, or weak cash conversion.
$91.22 local close on 2026-07-02
ON was down 29.1% over one month, but up 46.7% over three months, 60.9% over six months, and 63.0% over one year.
Realized volatility was high: about 89.8% annualized over 63 trading days and 62.2% over 252 trading days.Rough EV near $36.3B
The lane estimates about 6.1x FY2025 revenue using local market cap, gross debt, and cash/short-term investments.
The page treats this as an expectation-burden frame, not a distressed valuation signal.Repurchases, short interest, and insider flow are mixed
Latest local short interest was 31.18M shares as of 2026-06-15, and local Form 4 data showed about $17.8M of 2026 insider sale value through 2026-05-18 filing coverage.
Institutional and passive ownership were not sourced in the current lane.External market reaction was expectation-sensitive
The filed source set includes outside coverage that the stock fell after Q1 results despite a beat and better guide.
Older 2025 market-reaction coverage is retained only as narrative-history context.
Scenarios
Scenario Assessment
The scenario map is dominated by whether auto/industrial recovery and utilization leverage become visible before expectations reset.
Base / high relative likelihood
Margin recovery with bounded AI optionality
Q1 stabilization extends, utilization improves, GAAP margins recover from depressed levels, and AI data-center power remains helpful but not dominant.
Upside / medium relative likelihood
AI power scale becomes visible
AI data-center power-tree revenue becomes material and disclosed while auto/industrial markets continue recovering and supply conditions avoid new inventory or utilization problems.
Downside / medium relative likelihood
Recovery stalls after expectation reset
Revenue guidance slips, GAAP margin normalization stalls, AI power remains vague, or semiconductor leadership unwinds before the operating proof improves.
Triggers
Monitoring Trigger Board
These are operating evidence checks, not chart levels. Chart overlays remain in the shared chart-level registry.
Q2 results
Revenue guide delivery
Confirm: Q2 revenue lands within or above the $1.54B-$1.64B guide and forward commentary supports continued stabilization.
Warn: Q2 or Q3 revenue guide falls below the Q1 run-rate without a clear temporary explanation.
Gross margin
GAAP margin recovery
Confirm: GAAP gross margin continues toward high-30s or low-40s levels as realignment costs fade.
Warn: Gross margin stalls below high-30s or adjustment items remain large.
AI power
Scale disclosure
Confirm: Absolute AI revenue, margin contribution, customer breadth, and repeat orders become visible.
Warn: Management keeps using only percentage growth language.
Cash flow
Buybacks versus FCF
Confirm: Operating cash flow recovers and buybacks stay manageable relative to FCF.
Warn: Repurchases keep exceeding FCF while working capital remains weak.
Core demand
Auto and industrial orders
Confirm: Segment revenue, lead times, and distributor inventory show core demand is recovering.
Warn: Customers push out orders and utilization recovery stalls.
Expectations
Rerating fragility
Confirm: Earnings beats are rewarded because margin and cash evidence improves.
Warn: Volatility, peer underperformance, or post-print selling show expectations remain ahead of proof.
Risks
Risks, Invalidations, And Quality Flags
The risk balance is balanced but evidence-sensitive. Liquidity is adequate, but the setup is fragile if the recovery fails to become GAAP and cash-flow visible.
Auto and industrial pause
Basis
Auto and industrial represented 79% of FY2025 revenue.
Warning
Another order pause would pressure revenue, utilization, inventory quality, and margin recovery.
Reduce concern
Segment revenue and order commentary show broad recovery across both channels.
Margin quality
Basis
2025 realignment, impairment, inventory, and underutilization costs were large.
Warning
Investors may overestimate normalized profitability if those costs are structural.
Reduce concern
GAAP margin recovers as restructuring and inventory charges fade.
AI scale disappointment
Basis
AI data-center revenue growth is disclosed in rates, not absolute scale or margin.
Warning
A small fast-growing base may not justify the recovery multiple.
Reduce concern
Management discloses material revenue, margin contribution, and customer breadth.
Buybacks above FCF
Basis
Q1 repurchases were about $346M, roughly 160% of quarterly FCF.
Warning
Aggressive capital return can become procyclical if cash conversion stays weak.
Reduce concern
Operating cash flow recovers and repurchases stay inside durable FCF.
Expectations ahead of proof
Basis
ON rose strongly over three to twelve months through 2026-07-02, but fell 29.1% over one month.
Warning
Misses or vague AI disclosure can have an outsized effect after the rerating.
Reduce concern
Operating evidence improves enough that beats are rewarded rather than sold.
Source coverage
Basis
The filed lane lacks full recent call transcripts, latest investor deck, covenant detail, and full peer valuation work.
Warning
Guidance quality, AI detail, and relative valuation confidence could change with fuller source coverage.
Reduce concern
Next source occurrence fills transcript, deck, covenant, and peer gaps.
Diagnostics
Freshness And Known Unknowns
The report is a dated projection of the filed lane. It does not refresh canonical research or mutate discovery data.
Freshness
Knowledge reviewed July 4, 2026.
Market data
Source quality
Chart
Local daily market data in the lane was current through 2026-07-02.
The research layer reported no contradictory claim pairs, but did flag stale and incomplete source coverage.
The selected-security chart loads from the local report API when available.
Known unknowns
The main gaps affect guidance confidence and valuation context.
Transcript history
AI scale
Peer and debt work
Full recent call Q&A was not available, limiting confidence in backlog, utilization, order behavior, and margin targets.
AI data-center growth is disclosed in percentages, not absolute revenue, margin, customer breadth, or durability.
Full peer valuation data and covenant detail were not sourced.
Sources
Links And Filings
Use the knowledge lane for canonical research. Use metadata for projection details and freshness.
Canonical filed company view for ON.
Projection contract, freshness, source trail, and machine provenance.
Generic security chart route if the detailed page is not registered.
Primary filing route for 2025 revenue, segment mix, margin reset, and repurchase authorization context.
Primary filing route for liquidity, debt, maturities, and segment organization.
Primary route for Q1 revenue, Q2 guidance, AI data-center language, margin, and buyback context.
Governance and incentive-design source route.
Outside-view route used for expectation sensitivity, not as primary operating evidence.
Local report and market-data context for chart and tape diagnostics.
Detailed audit fields stay in metadata rather than visible page copy.