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Security report / ROK

ROK Operating Console

Rockwell Automation has a real FY2026 recovery signal after Q2 sales rose, adjusted EPS improved, and management raised the full-year organic growth guide. The next proof window is second-half execution: hold the 5%-9% organic growth guide, keep Software & Control margins in the low-to-mid 30s, recover tariff and component costs, and make free cash flow catch up with earnings.

Metadata Knowledge Lane Fallback Chart
Ticker ROK
Knowledge reviewed 2026-05-13
Links checked 2026-06-21
Chart source Local API
Module 01 / Price

Selected-Security Chart

API required

Loading ROK daily chart from the local report API.

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Module 02 / Proof window

Current Company View

Second-half test
Next read Q3 and second-half evidence must show that Q2 was durable automation demand, not only a post-trough rebound.
Measured base

Q2 FY2026 sales were $2.239B, up 12%, and adjusted EPS was $3.30, up 32%.

Main proof issue

Management raised FY2026 organic sales growth to 5%-9% and adjusted EPS to $12.50-$13.10 after Q2.

Quality caveat

First-half free cash flow was $445M, down year over year despite better earnings.

Next evidence

Organic order quality, Software & Control margin, price/cost recovery, Lifecycle Services after Sensia, and FCF conversion.

Q2 sales $2.239B +12% year over year
Adjusted EPS $3.30 +32% in Q2 FY2026
FY2026 organic guide 5%-9% Raised after Q2
Software margin 34.9% Q2 Software & Control
First-half FCF $445M Down from $464M
Cash / debt $423M / $3.69B As of Mar. 31, 2026
Exposure Map

Business Profile, Segments, And Exposure

Rockwell sells automation hardware, software/control systems, and lifecycle services. The operating read depends on segment mix and whether automation capex becomes orders, margins, and cash.

Business model

Automation hardware, software, and services

Demand is tied to manufacturing modernization, warehouse automation, data centers, semiconductors, energy, and installed-base support.

Disclosure map

Three disclosed segments

Rockwell reports Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The current gap is order and backlog quality after the Q2 guide raise.

Intelligent Devices

Largest revenue segment.

Q2 sales were $1.008B, up 13%, with a 20.9% segment operating margin.

More useful evidence

Order conversion in drives, motion, sensing, safety, and material handling.

Software & Control

Cleanest mix-quality proof point.

Q2 sales were $684M, up 20%, with a 34.9% segment margin.

More useful evidence

Low-to-mid 30s margin durability and ARR/software evidence.

Lifecycle Services

Soft organic evidence.

Q2 sales were $547M, up 2% reported but down 1% organic, with about 14.6% implied margin.

More useful evidence

Services recovery after Sensia comparability and better project timing.

Automation end markets

Supportive but still needs orders.

Management cited warehouse automation, data centers, semiconductors, and energy as Q2 demand drivers.

More useful evidence

Backlog, organic orders, and customer capex staying firm into Q3.

Value Driver Board

Relative Value And Value Drivers

ROK is not a low-expectation recovery. The source lane frames the stock around a mid-30s multiple on FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance after the Q2 rerating.

Organic guide
5%-9%

The guide raise is the core demand proof. It has to survive Q3 and the second-half order check.

Next: organic orders, backlog quality, and end-market detail.
Software margin
34.9% Q2 margin

Software & Control supports the premium mix case if margins stay in the low-to-mid 30s.

Next: segment margin, ARR detail, and component cost commentary.
Cash conversion
$445M first-half FCF

Free cash flow lagged earnings because incentive compensation and working capital absorbed cash.

Next: second-half OCF, capex, inventory, and receivables.
Cost pass-through
Tariffs and components

Pricing, productivity, supply-chain actions, and mix must offset tariffs, memory components, commodities, energy, and freight.

Next: price/cost bridge and segment margin by quarter.
Guidance Tests

Guidance Path And What Changed

The May 5, 2026 Q2 release moved FY2026 organic growth guidance from 2%-6% to 5%-9% and adjusted EPS from $11.40-$12.20 to $12.50-$13.10.

Question
Can Q2 demand become second-half growth?

Confirm organic growth remains inside the raised range with solid order and backlog quality.

Warn if Q3 guidance tightens because Q2 was a short-cycle rebound.

Question
Can mix absorb input costs?

Confirm Software & Control margin remains low-to-mid 30s and Intelligent Devices holds margin near the Q2 base.

Warn if tariffs, components, energy, or freight reopen the price/cost gap.

Question
Can FCF catch up with earnings?

Confirm second-half cash generation improves after first-half FCF declined year over year.

Warn if buybacks, capex, working capital, or incentive payments keep cash conversion below earnings.

Operating Evidence

Operating Evidence And KPIs

These tiles summarize the filed source evidence. Use the lane and raw outputs for the full claim map.

Recovery base
$2.239B / $3.30

Q2 sales and adjusted EPS improved enough to make the guide raise credible.

Segment mix
45% earnings share

Software & Control was 30.5% of Q2 sales but about 45.1% of segment operating earnings.

Cash conversion
$445M FCF

First-half FCF stayed positive but fell from $464M a year earlier.

Lifecycle Services
-1% organic

Q2 Lifecycle Services organic sales were negative, so recurring-service durability is not proven.

Capital Ledger

Financial Quality And Capital Allocation

The balance sheet is usable for an investment-grade industrial issuer. The quality test is whether cash conversion supports buybacks and investment without leaning harder on short-term funding.

Financial quality

Manageable debt, active funding watch

At March 31, 2026, Rockwell had $423M of cash, about $3.69B of gross debt, $1.025B of commercial paper, and an undrawn $1.5B revolver due November 2030.

Capital allocation

Buybacks plus manufacturing investment

First-half buybacks were about $608M, with $318M remaining under authorization. The company is also funding Wisconsin manufacturing expansion and a broader five-year investment plan.

Position Board

Competitive Position

Rockwell has a credible automation edge, but the page does not treat that edge as fully priced-proof without sustained segment and cash evidence.

What ROK has

Control architecture

Rockwell's Logix-centered architecture supports hardware and software standardization across production disciplines.

Premium mix evidence

Software & Control margin was 34.9% in Q2 and is the cleanest financial proof point.

Automation demand routes

Warehouse automation, data centers, semiconductors, energy, and modernization support demand if orders convert.

What is not proven

Order durability

The source pass did not include a full transcript review, so order-quality nuance remains incomplete.

Services recovery

Lifecycle Services was down organically in Q2 and Sensia comparability complicates the read.

Relative valuation

Peer benchmarking and current market data were incomplete in the filed lane.

Street View

Ownership, Flows, Valuation, And Street Views

Official filings and Rockwell IR carry the operating evidence. Outside market-data items are dated context and should be refreshed before trading-sensitive use.

Official source set

IR and quarterly reports checked 2026-06-21

Rockwell's IR pages route to Q2 FY2026 results, the Q2 earnings presentation, quarterly reports, events, and analyst coverage.

Dashboard use: source routing and current filing freshness. Rockwell investor relations
Valuation frame

Premium recovery multiple

The lane frames ROK around a mid-30s multiple on the FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint after the May 2026 post-Q2 move.

Dashboard use: proof burden, not a live quote. Knowledge lane valuation section
Outside-view market data

StockAnalysis snapshot checked 2026-06-21

StockAnalysis showed a June 18 close of $473.79, market cap of $52.72B, enterprise value of $56.35B, forward P/E of 34.54, EV/sales of 6.40, and short interest of 3.30M shares.

Dashboard use: dated outside-view context; local chart API remains the report chart source. StockAnalysis ROK statistics
Tape note

Near recent high after Q2 rerating

A MarketWatch item dated June 18, 2026 reported ROK closing at $473.79, near the June 16, 2026 52-week high.

Dashboard use: dated tape context only. MarketWatch ROK tape route
Scenario Board

Scenario Assessment And Sensitivities

The stronger path requires demand, margin, and cash to improve together. A guide raise without cash conversion is not enough.

Base

Rockwell sustains the FY2026 recovery, organic growth stays within the raised range, Software & Control remains the quality anchor, and cost pressure is mostly offset. FCF improves but remains an active proof item.

Upside

Automation demand proves more durable than a cyclical rebound, Software & Control margins remain low-to-mid 30s, services recover, and free cash flow supports investment and buybacks.

Downside

Cost pressure broadens, customer capex slows, the guide is cut or order quality weakens, Software & Control margin normalizes lower, and FCF continues to lag earnings.

Trigger Stack

Monitoring Triggers

These are business evidence checks. Chart overlays remain in the shared overlay rules, outside this page.

Organic growth

Raised 5%-9% FY2026 guide

Confirm Q3 and second-half commentary keeps organic growth inside the raised range.

Warn if order quality or backlog conversion does not support the guide.

Software margin

Low-to-mid 30s margin durability

Confirm Software & Control margin stays near the Q2 quality signal.

Warn if component costs or mix pressure pull the segment materially below the low-30s range.

FCF conversion

Second-half catch-up

Confirm operating cash flow and free cash flow improve with earnings.

Warn if working capital, incentives, capex, or buybacks continue to absorb cash.

Price/cost

Tariff, component, energy, and freight recovery

Confirm pricing, productivity, and supply-chain actions protect segment margins.

Warn if tariffs, memory components, commodities, energy, or freight reopen the margin gap.

Services

Lifecycle Services after Sensia

Confirm services organic growth and margin stabilize after Sensia comparability noise.

Warn if Lifecycle Services remains negative organically while project timing worsens.

Funding

Commercial paper and revolver watch

Confirm investment-grade access stays clean and routine returns are funded by durable cash.

Warn if revolver use rises or ratings outlooks weaken while FCF lags.

Risk Punch Cards

Risks, Invalidations, And Quality Flags

The main risks are expectation risk, cost pass-through, cash conversion, customer capex timing, and non-GAAP/Sensia comparability.

Expectations after rerating
Basis

The stock repriced after the Q2 beat and guide raise, and the lane frames valuation near a mid-30s FY2026 adjusted EPS multiple.

Warning

Good but ordinary recovery evidence may not support the multiple.

Reduce concern

Repeated growth, segment margin, and FCF evidence show durable automation demand.

Cost pass-through
Basis

Tariffs, memory-related components, commodities, energy, and freight are explicit second-half margin tests.

Warning

Price/cost productivity weakens or segment margins fall while demand still appears strong.

Reduce concern

Pricing, mix, productivity, and supply-chain actions preserve the margin path.

Cash conversion
Basis

First-half FCF declined year over year despite higher earnings.

Warning

Working capital, capex, incentives, or buybacks keep absorbing cash.

Reduce concern

Second-half operating cash flow catches up with adjusted EPS.

Customer capex cycle
Basis

Automation demand depends on customer manufacturing capex, project starts, and funding conditions.

Warning

Restrictive rates or weak orders delay projects and reduce backlog conversion.

Reduce concern

Orders and backlog hold across discrete, hybrid, and process end markets.

Non-GAAP and Sensia
Basis

Adjusted earnings include items tied to Sensia dissolution, amortization, asbestos/environmental charges, and other special items.

Warning

Adjusted EPS improves while GAAP quality, cash, or segment comparability weakens.

Reduce concern

GAAP earnings, segment profit, adjusted EPS, and cash flow point in the same direction.

Peer and market-data gap
Basis

The filed lane had incomplete peer benchmarking and stale market data after May 7-May 12.

Warning

Relative valuation conclusions are used without refreshed peer, market, or flow evidence.

Reduce concern

Future source pass refreshes peer margins, peer multiples, short interest, insider flow, and current tape.

Diagnostics

Diagnostics, Freshness, And Known Unknowns

This is a first filed ROK security occurrence, supplemented with dated web checks. It is a report projection, not a canonical research refresh.

Freshness

Lane has stale-source diagnostics
Source run

Latest filed security source run generated 2026-05-13T03:51:27Z.

Market data

Lane market data was stale after the May 7-May 12 window and is not used here as a live quote.

Web check

Official IR, SEC, Q2 release, presentation, event, and dated outside-view links checked 2026-06-21.

Known unknowns

Proof still needed
Transcript coverage

Last-four-quarter call transcripts were not fully reviewed in the source pass.

Peer benchmarking

Peer valuation, growth, and margin comparisons remain incomplete.

Order quality

The mix between durable automation capex and short-cycle recovery demand remains unresolved.

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